China Electric Power Industry Report (Risk Study), 2006
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In 2005, China totally generated 2474.7 billion kWh with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.8%, which is lower than 14.8% in 2003 and 13.6% in 2004 yet still increase by quite a large margin. In the aspect of power consumption, the year 2005 still saw fast growth but somewhat slowed down. The whole society of China consumed 2468.9 billion kWh of electric power in 2005 with a year-on-year increase of 13.5%, declining 1.4% compared to growth rate in 2004.

Monthly Electric Power Demand in China, Jan-Dec 2006


 

Regional Demand for Electric Power

Regions

Provinces involved

Electric Power Requirements in 2006 (0.1 billion kwh)

Year-on-year growth rate (%)

North China

Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolian, Shandong

6214

11.45

North-east China

Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang

2129

7.85

Central China

Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Chongqing, Sichuan

4782

9.29

North-west China

Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang

1931

10.02

East China

Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Fujian

6820

13.23

South China

Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Yunnan, Guizhou

4760

12.58

 

As the Chinese government leveled up the requirements of environmental protection and established the energy policies of “thrift first, self-independent, taking coal as the basis to achieve multi-polar development and constructing a steady, economical and clean energy supply system” during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan (2006-2010), nuclear power generation, wind power generation, hydropower generation and other renewable energy power generation will speed up during this period.

In terms of nuclear power generation, China will advance from the moderate development strategy to accelerating development strategy. Nuclear power will play an even more important role in China's future power development. Especially in the developed coastal areas with heavy power load, nuclear power will become the backbone of the power structure there. China has planned to build up another 30 sets of nuclear power generator within 15 years with total installed capacity of 36 to 40 million kWh, accounting for about 4% of China's total installed capacity of the electric power industry.

In the long-term industrial plan, the National development and Reform Commission of China has adjusted the objective of the wind power installed capacity for 2010 from 4 million kilowatts to 5 million kilowatts, and the objective for 2020 has adjusted from 20 million kilowatts to 30 million kilowatts. Conservatively estimated, when the factory price of every kilowatt of equipment is RMB 6,000, the market value will total RMB 30 billion by the year 2010.

China is speeding up its hydropower development and its hydropower installed capacity will reach 250 million kilowatts by the year 2020. This means that 46-47% of China's water resource will be exploited and utilized then.

In the past two years, as the electric power industry has rapidly developed, the risks of policies and laws have also increased. We initiated to organize research staff from the Development Research Center of the State Council (DRC) and others to jointly make this report which gives an in-depth analysis of risks about policies and laws in the electric power industry and at the same time studies the potential risks in fields such as financial affairs, markets, relevant industries and others of the electric power industry. We used the quantitative method to predict the indicators on the output capacity, economic benefits as well as the import export trade of the industry. From all accounts, we evaluate the risks in the electric power industry and offer corresponding solutions.

1. Studies on political risks of the electric power industry
1.1 Political prospect of the electric power industry
1.1.1 Policies regarding the energy industry during the Eleventh Five-Year plan  
1.1.2 Development orientation of the electric power industry
1.1.3 Higher political requirements for thermal power
1.1.4 Great opportunities in the development of clean energy
1.1.5 The break-off of monopoly
1.2 Political prospect for the development of nuclear power industry
1.2.1Acceleration of nuclear power engineering & construction of China
1.2.2 Prospect of the nuclear power market in China
1.2.3 Analysis of policies for international cooperation
1.2.4 Analysis of cooperation for nuclear power information
1.2.5 Internal standardized administration on nuclear power of electric power plants
1.2.6 Options of tax policies for nuclear power industry development
1.2.7 Nuclear power industry development and sustainable development policies
1.2.8 Other economic policies for the development of the nuclear power industry
1.2.9 Reform of the administrative system
1.3 Political prospect for wind power construction and risk analysis
1.3.1 Gradual industrialization of wind power
1.3.2 Deficiency of production capacity shows great potentials and opportunities
1.3.3 Great political support for the domestic wind power equipment manufacturing  
1.3.4 Policies issued by the State Development and Reform Commission for promoting wind power development
1.4 Political prospect for hydropower development
1.4.1China being the top worldwide in hydro-power resources
1.4.2 China will accelerate the development of hydro-power 
1.4.3 Prospect of the installed capacity of hydropower 
1.5 Political trend of new energy
1.5.1 New-energy electricity generation and the Renewable Energy law
1.5.2 New-energy electricity generation and the pricing mechanism 
1.5.3 New-energy electricity generation and grid access
1.6 New regulations for the dispatch management of East-China power system
1.6.1 Operational analysis
1.6.2 Analysis on grid-connected management and demand management
1.6.3 The Black Start Plan being into the regulations
1.6.4 The standardized dispatch management
1.7 Comment on China’s first regional Electricity Anti-theft Law  

2. Risk study on relevant laws& regulations of the electric power industry
2.1 Prospect of China's Energy Law
2.2 Analysis on the Renewable Energy Law and the electric power industry

3. Financial indicators analysis
3.1 Comprehensive risk appraisal 
3.2 Operational analysis
3.2.1 National and regional sales revenue growth analysis
3.2.2 National and regional assets growth analysis
3.2.3 National and regional sales profit ratio analysis
3.2.4 National and regional assets turnover rate analysis
3.3 Asset quality analysis
3.3.1 National and regional asset liability ratio analysis
3.3.2 National and regional capital maintenance & appreciation ratio analysis
3.3.3 National and regional net assets earning ratio analysis
3.3.4 National and regional accounts receivable turnover analysis
3.3.5 National and regional current assets turnover analysis
3.3.6 National and regional capital into the finished goods analysis

4. Market competition analysis
4.1 Analysis on the development trend of electricity generation
4.1.1 Moderate demand and supply on the whole
4.1.2 Analysis on regional demand and supply
4.2 Forecast of the electric power price
4.2.1 Review of electricity prices 
4.2.2 Analysis on factors that influence the electric power price
4.3 Relatively moderate market risks for electricity supply plants
4.4 Analysis on star-up significance of regional electric power markets
4.4.1 The decreasing electricity cost for end users
4.4.2 Great influence of thermal power
4.4.3 The positive influence of hydro-power
4.5 Introduction to key electric power plants
4.5.1 Electric power grid groups
4.5.2 Electric power generation groups
4.5.3 Electric power engineering projects and related enterprises

5. Risks of relevant industries 
5.1 Forecast of total demand for electric power in 2006
5.1.1 Forecast of total demand for electric power 
5.1.2 Forecast of electric power demand by region
5.2 Demand forecast of downstream industries in 2006
5.2.1 The iron & steel industry
5.2.2 Non-ferrous metal industry
5.2.3 The building materials industry
5.2.4 The machinery industry
5.2.5 The chemical industry
5.2.6 Other industries
5.3 Risks of raw materials supply in 2006
5.3.1 Analysis on coal supply risks
5.3.2 Analysis on coal and electricity price trends

6. Development environments and risks of industrial elements
6.1 Operational risks of the macro-economy in 2006
6.2 Grid construction facing serious problems
6.3 Increasing credit risks and financial cost

7. General description of the risks in the electric power industry and corresponding solutions
7.1 Comprehensive risk appraisal
7.1.1 Pricing mechanism calling for the reform urgently
7.1.2 Still great demand of electric power
7.1.3 Despite alleviated demand & supply pressure, still possible deficiency
7.1.4 Excessive investment into the electric power construction
7.1.5 The coal & electricity linkage scheme drives the industrial profit
7.2 Investment strategies in 2006
7.2.1 Investment opportunities to grip and equipment manufacturing enterprises
7.2.2 Large-scale electricity generation groups benefit from regulation of Pay as Bid
7.2.3 Electricity-saving projects being the investment hotspot
7.2.4 Renewable-energy electric power being the new focus
Comprehensive financial indicator of China's electric power industry, 2003-July 2006
The cost structure of China's electric power industry
Growth in sales revenue of China's electric power industry, 2000-July 2006
Sales revenue from the electric power industry of different regions of China, 2005
Growth in total assets of China's electric power industry, 2000-July 2006
Total assets of China's electric power industry by regions, 2005
Sales Profit Margin of China's electric power industry, 1999-2005
Sales Profit Margin of China's electric power industry by regions, 2005
Comprehensive financial index of China's electric power industry, 1999-2005
Assets turnover ration of China's electric power industry by regions, 2005
Liability/asset ratio of China's electric power industry, 1999-July 2006
Liability/asset ratio of China’s electric power industry by region, 2005
Value maintenance and appreciation ratio of the electric power industry of China and its different regions
Net assets earning ratio of China's electric power industry, 1999-July 2006
Net assets earning ratio of China's electric power industry by regions, 2005
Account receivables turnover of China's electric power industry, 1999-July 2006
Account receivables turnover of China's electric power industry by regions, 2005
Floating assets turnover of China's electric power industry, 1999-July 2006
Floating assets turnover of China's electric power industry by regions, 2005

Capital share of finished goods of the electric power generation industry of China as whole and its different regions, 2005
Capital share of finished goods of the electric power supply industry of China as whole and its different regions, 2005
Average yearly utilization hours of China's electric power generation equipment, 2005
Average quarterly utilization hours of China's electric power generation equipment, 2002-2006
Utilization hours of China's electric power generation equipment by regions, 2006
Monthly power demand forecast, Jan-Dec 2006
Operation status of China's iron and steel industry, 2000-2006
Operation status of China's electrolytic aluminum industry, 2000-2006
Operation status of China's other non-ferrous metal smelt industries, 2000-2006
Operation status of China's cement industry, 2000-2006
Operation status of China's machinery manufacturing industry, 2000-2006
Operation status of China's chemical raw materials and products industry, 2000-2006
Monthly power demand of China, 2005
Proportion of the power consumption of different industries against the total power consumption of China, 2005
Proportion and growth of electricity consumption in daily life, 1990-2005
Average yearly utilization hours of China's electricity generation equipment, 1997-2005
Monthly highest grid load record in different regions of China, Jan-Aug 2006
Average monthly grid load rate in different regions of China, Jan-Sep 2006
Coal price graph
Power demand in different regions of China
Output and year-on-year growth rate of the power consumption industries
Operation status of China's national electricity grid system, 2005-July 2006
Hydropower generation status in China, Jan-Aug 2006
Trans-region power delivery of State Grid Corporation of China (SGCC), Jan-Aug 2006

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