Investment Opportunities in China Non-ferrous Metal Industry, 2007
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The year of 2006 saw a rapid growth in the prices of various non-ferrous metals and precious metals: the price growth of cuprum, aluminum, lead, zinc, stannum, nickel and gold were 96%, 40%, 66%, 137%, 70%, 151% and 42% respectively.

This caused a sharp rise of the profit both in non-ferrous metal mining industry and smelting & processing industry. From Jan. to Sept. of 2006, the former achieved an accumulated profit growth rate of 68.65% and the latter 105.88%, ranking fifth and third of all industries respectively.

Accumulated Profit Growth Rate of China's Non-ferrous Metal Smelting & Processing Industry, Jan.-Sept. 2006


 

It is noticed that after the new records in early May of 2006, differentiation appeared in varied types of metal. Cuprum and aluminum seemed to have a higher correlation degree, both of the prices declined to a large extent after the highest price on May 11th. By Nov. 30th, cuprum and aluminum depreciated by 17.67% and 14% respectively. Gold was sold at USD 728 per ounce on May 12th, which is the peak of 2006, and the current price is about USD 645.

Compared with cuprum and aluminum, the prices of lead, zinc, stannum and nickel also experienced adjustments after the peak on May 11th, then continuously increasing, and the momentum of exceeding cuprum price tended to be lucid. Stannum and nickel broke this year's price record on Oct. 17th and Nov. 30th respectively, while lead and zinc saw the yearly new record on Nov. 9th.

After decades or even centuries of large-scale exploitation, the global non-ferrous metal resources are becoming increasingly precious, so the prices have kept a long-term rising momentum. Due to the world's reascending economy and China's macro-control policy in 2007, the market demand of related industries will decrease accordingly; the growth speed in supply/demand and price of non-ferrous metal industry would decline from the peak, but not to a large extent, and some products are still urgently required in certain stages.

1. Review on China's Non-ferrous Metal Industry, 2006
1.1 Price Momentum Differentiation of Major Non-ferrous Metals, 2006Q4
1.2 Sustaining Profit Increase of Non-ferrous Metal Industry, 2006Q1-2006Q3

2. Prospect of the Global Non-ferrous Metal Industry, 2007
2.1 Slower but Still Comparatively High Growing Speed of World Economy
2.2 Tight Supply with Vigorous Demand

3. Analysis on Supply/Demand of China's Non-ferrous Metal Industry, 2007
3.1 Still Dominated by Raw Material Import
3.2 Problems in Supply/Demand could not be Resolved in a Short Period

4. Price Forecast of Cuprum, Zinc and Nickel and Analysis on Listed Companies
4.1 Forecast of Average Prices, 2007
4.2 Analysis on Listed Companies

5. Price Forecast of Electrolytic Aluminum and Analysis on Listed Companies
5.1 Four Adjustments of Alumina Spot Price and Profit Reconstruction of Industry Chain
5.2 Analysis on Short-term Supporting Factors of Alumina Price
5.3 Analysis on Relevant Listed Companies

6. Gold Still Has the Largest Earning Potential
6.1 Market Supply and Demand
6.2 Association of Gold with US Dollar and Oil Price

7. Conclusions
Prices and Inventory of LME Major Non-ferrous Metals
Comprehensive Indexes and Trend of LME Metal Prices
Profit Growth of China's Industrial Enterprises, Jan.-Sept. 2006
Accumulated Profit Growth of China's Non-ferrous Metal Mining Industry, Jan.-Sept. 2006
Accumulated Profit Growth of China's Non-ferrous Metal Smelting & Processing Industry, Jan.-Sept. 2006
Cuprum Prices at China and Abroad, 2004-2006
Association of Cuprum Price and the Inventory
Monthly Output of China's Domestic Refined Cuprum
Monthly Output of China's Domestic Copper Mines
Monthly Output of China's Domestic Electrolyzed Aluminum and Alumina, 2005-2006
Monthly Output of Imported Alumina, 2005-2006
Price Tendency of China's Domestic and Foreign Electrolyzed Aluminum
Decrease in China's Domestic Electrolyzed Aluminum Export
Increase in China's Domestic Aluminum Product Export
IMF's Forecast on Economic Growth of World and Major Communities
Global Investment on Non-ferrous Metal Exploitation
Comparison of LME Cuprum Price and Inventory
Comparison of LME Aluminum Price and Inventory
Comparison of LME Lead Price and Inventory
Comparison of LME Zinc Price and Inventory
Comparison of LME Stannum Price and Inventory
Comparison of LME Nickel Price and Inventory
Purchasing Management Index (PMI) of JP Morgan Global Manufacturing Industry
China's Share in Global Metal Production and Consumption
China's Annual Growth in Non-ferrous Metal Consumption, 1990-2006
Import & Export of China's Non-ferrous Metal
Supply/Demand Balance and Price Forecast of Electrolyzed Aluminum
Supply/Demand Balance and Price Forecast of Zinc
Supply/Demand Balance and Price Forecast of Gold
Gold Reserve in Major Countries

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