China Machinery Industry Report (Investment Strategy), 2006-2007
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Each sub-industry of machinery is developing at different speed during the 11th Five-Year Plan period (2006-2010). It is predicted that the annual average growth rate of China machinery industry in this period will remain 12%-15% with profit increase of about 5%. As a matter of fact, the difficulty lies in profit increase rather than in sales and production. All of this indicates neutral advice on investment. ResearchInChina hereby recommend the following sub-industries: container lifting appliances industry, marine power industry, railway equipment industry, and CNC machine tool industry, etc.

The prosperity period of container lifting appliances industry will last up to the year of 2010 at least. The continuous growth of world trade and large scale of container ships drive the container port unloading capacity to be greatly improved, and accordingly, the great demands for container port crane keep growing. Meanwhile, the 11th Five-year Plan of China major ports shows: China port construction scale will be still at quite high level before the year of 2010. Being built in an earlier period, the equipments of many main Occident ports have dropped behind, so it is predicted that their reconstruction scale will remain the same trend in the coming several years. Therefore, ResearchInChina makes a conclusion that the prosperity period of port container lifting appliances industry will last to the year of 2010 at least.

In the forthcoming five years, the demands of marine diesel engines in China will multiple. The goal of China Shipping Industry Development Policy and the cross-year “531” plan put forward by China State Shipbuilding Corporation are as follows: to be listed as world top five shipbuilding manufacturers by 2007, world top three by 2010, and world top one by 2015. The industry policies provide historical opportunities for the development of China's domestic shipping industry and China-made diesel engines. Now that China shipping industry is rising and the policy of homemade ships should equip with homemade diesel engines is implemented, the future of Chinese diesel engines will see great development opportunities.

Railway equipment industry is now facing a brilliant prospect. Medium and Long Term Railway Network Plan declares the huge development opportunities of railways. From the year of 2005 to 2020, Ministry of Railways would double the current investment of RMB 50 billion each year to RMB 100-120 billion in railway construction. A rough estimation shows that the CAGR of acquisition capital for railway freight trains will be at 28% in the year of 2006 and 2007.

The CNC machine tool, with great opportunities, will outnumber the general ones in demands for the future. Downstream users of machine tool industry are of a great number, among which automobile and auto part industry consumes 40% of the total machine tools. Along with the implementation of macro-control policies and the growing cardinal number of machine tool, the investment peak into automobiles, motors, heavy electronic industry indicates a decline and so does the machine tool industry. It is predicted that the growth will be at around 15% in the year of 2006. However, it is promising for the CNC machine tool. The domestic market share (by sales revenue) of homemade CNC machine tools will be expected to climb from current 30% to more than 50% by the end of the 11th Five-Year Plan period.

Construction machinery industry hovers at the low end, which is in line with the predictions: it developed slowly first and then experienced a relatively rapid growth in 2005 and it will not come to life until the year of 2007. The sales revenue of construction machinery industry is estimated to increase by 5% and the profit will continue a decrease of 10% in 2006.

1 Overview of Machinery Industry: growth rate of machinery industry declines during Jan-Oct 2005
1.1 Different orientations of macro-control policies make industries develop in different ways
1.2 Severe backwardness of China equipment manufacturing industry
1.3 The 11th Five-Year Plan: develop self-innovated advanced manufacturing industry
1.4 Equipment manufacturing: priority of the 11th Five-Year Plan
1.5 Analysis of machinery industry trend in 2006
1.6 Recommendation on sub-industry investment

2 Container lifting appliances industry: industry prosperity will last up to 2010
2.1 Problems and views
2.2 Market demand of container lifting appliances before 2007
2.3 High growth of container throughput capacity and great demand of quayside before 2010
2.4 Competition pattern of global container lifting appliances: monopolistic competition
2.5 Major enterprises

3 Marine power industry: demands of marine low-speed high-power diesel engines will multiple in the next five years
3.1 International shipbuilding market is entering adjustment period
3.2 China marine diesel engine manufacturing is lagged far behind shipbuilding development
3.3 Industry policies provide historical opportunities for the development of domestic shipbuilding industry and homemade diesel engines
3.4 Demands for China marine diesel engines will multiple in the next five years
3.5 Competitive pattern of domestic low-speed diesel engine: high concentration and severely insufficient of production capacity
3.6 Weak competitiveness of China low-speed diesel engines in international market
3.7 Major enterprises

4 Railway equipment industry: leaping development of railway is the turning point for railway equipment industry
4.1 Overproduction of railway freight train industry
4.2 Overproduction of railway equipments is due to the long-term backward of China railway development
4.3 China's economic growth and industrial structure reform require rapid development of railway
4.4 Insufficient investment in the long term causes the backwardness of railway development
4.5 Medium and Long Term Railway Network Plan provides policy support for railway development
4.6 Heavy-load and speed-raising provide chances for replacement of China railway freight trains
4.7 CAGR of acquisition capital for railway freight trains will be 28% in the next two years
4.8 Major enterprises

5 Machine tool industry: growth of general machine tools will decrease and CNC machine tool industry will face opportunities
5.1 China machine tool industry develops rapidly during the 11th Five-Year Plan period
5.2 Growth declined in machine tool industry in 2005
5.3 Development speed of homemade CNC machine tools is much higher than that of machine tool industry in recent years
5.4 China high-precision CNC machine tools mainly rely on import
5.5 Chinese policies will accelerate the development of CNC machine tool
5.6 Sales of China general machine tools tend to be fall in the future and the development potential of CNC machine tools is huge
5.7 Industrial concentration of CNC machine tool is relatively low with the top five occupying only 48% of the market share
5.8 Major enterprises

6 Construction machinery industry: a favorable turn is expected to be in 2007
6.1 Construction machinery industry in 2005 presented a "slow to high" development growth
6.2 Industrial decrease will not appear in short term
6.3 Major enterprises
7 Profit forecasts of major enterprises in machinery industry
Gross industrial output value growth in China machinery industry, 2004-2005
Sales growth of different industries, Jan-Sept 2005
Rapid growth of trade deficit in China machinery industry
World economy and global trade growth, 1997-2006
Global newly-added demands of quayside container cranes, 2002-2007
Forecast of growth rate of import & export and container handling capacity
Market share of suppliers in global quayside container crane market, 2004
Development of homemade mainframe allocation, 1982-2002
Share of marine low-speed diesel engine products in world market
World top ten low-speed diesel engine manufacturers, 2002
Change of freight turnover in China railway industry
Prospect of operating mileage of China railway industry
Investment change of China railway construction
Rapid increase of sales revenue of metal cutting tools in recent years
Rapid increase of gross profits of metal cutting tools in recent years
Basically stable gross profit of metal cutting tool industry
Total consumption of China machine tools, 2004
Container handling capacity and storage station investment, 2003-2007
Newly-added demands of global quayside container cranes, 2003-2007
Annual demand predictions of container cranes, 2005-2007
Annual demand of container cranes, 2008-2010
Production capacity of main products of Zhenhua Port Machinery
Transferring process of world shipbuilding
Transferring process of world marine diesel engine manufacturing
Forecast of world shipbuilding output, 2005-2015
Forecast of Shipbuilding capacity in China, 2005-2015
Forecast of marine diesel engine demand in China, 2005-2015
Market share of China main low-speed marine diesel engine manufacturers, 1981-2002
Annual production capacity of the whole industry of railway freight train
Bidding amount and market share of freight train bidding enterprises of Ministry of Railways, 2001-2003
Elastic coefficient between the growth of China industrial output value and railway freight
Accumulative amount of freight train and newly-built amount of Ministry of Railways, 1999-2004
Freight train investment and purchase amount of Ministry of Railways of China, 2002-2007
Sales of main products of construction machinery industry, Jan-Sep 2005
Related analysis on growth of sales and fixed asset investment of construction machinery industry
Profit forecast of major enterprises

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