Investment Strategy Report of China Aviation Industry, H2 2007
  • June/2007
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In 2006, 70 percent of China's FTK came from international and regional cargo and 30 percent was from domestic cargo. During the 11th five-year plan period (2006-2010), China's average annual GDP growth will be expected to reach 9.13%. In the next five years, the average annual growth of China's RTK will hit 15.5%. From 2006 to 2010, the number of airplanes will see an average annual growth of 11.5%. In addition, aircraft movements will continue to maintain a fast-growing trend at an average annual growth rate of 13-14%.

Statistics of China's RTK Growth, 1986-2006


1. Air transportation demand 
1.1 Fast growth of aviation industry
1.2 Development of air tourism 
1.3 Development of air freight 
1.4 Forecast of aviation demand, 2006-2010
1.5 Development of airport business 

2. External environment analysis 
2.1 Long-term appreciation trend of RMB has been established 
2.2 Oil price keeps stable, but has a falling trend 

3. Optimization of airlines management 
3.1 Air China 
3.2 China Southern Airlines
3.3 Brief Summary 

4. Influences of capital market on aviation industry
4.1 Anticipation of airlines assets reconstruction 
4.2 Airport: Aviation assets injection becoming a trend 
Statistics of China's RTK, 1986-2006 
Relativity between GDP growth and RTK growth
Relativity between RPK and growth of tourist number
Growth of residents' income
Growth of tourist number after 2002
Proportion of RPK to all modes of transportation 
RPK Growth 
Yen appreciation promoted growth of Japanese outbound travels 
Growth of China's RPK and outbound tourists 
Growth of total number of domestic residents outbound for public and private affairs 
Growth comparison of passenger and cargo throughput of international routes between domestic airlines and foreign airlines 
Relativity between foreign trade and air cargo growth 
Total FTK of three big airlines 
Forecast of China's RTK growth  
Forecast of transport capacity growth of China's aviation market 
Trend of exchange rate of RMB against USD 
Comparison of trend of domestic aviation oil price, Singapore oil price and TPC 
Airlines' sensitivity to RMB appreciation, 2007 
Forecast of crude oil and retail price of domestic aviation oil 
Analysis of aviation oil sensitivity (supposed the average price of aviation oil falling RMB100 per ton)
Status of airport assets injection

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