DESCRIPTION
Researched in late 2016 with ongoing updates, this unique report has over 260 data filled pages and images. It will assist investors, participants and intending participants in the value chain including manufacturers, developers, academics, government and users seeking the best forecasts and technology roadmaps based on new global investigation. The pages are mostly in the form of easily assimilated infograms, roadmaps and forecasts.
The biggest change in cars for one hundred years is now starting. It is driven by totally new requirements and capabilities. They will cause huge new businesses to appear but some giants currently making cars and their parts will spectacularly go bankrupt. Cities will ban private cars but encourage cars as autonomous taxis and rental vehicles. Already 65% of cars in China are bought by businesses. The Japanese want the car to be part of the hydrogen economy and a source of power when the next earthquakes and tsunamis hit. The emerging countries want car-like vehicles, mainly as taxis, that are one tenth of the cost and never refuel because the ample sunshine and wind will be grabbed and stored by the vehicle. There is even work on getting electricity from tires. When, where, why, what next? Only this report has the latest analysis by multilingual IDTechEx experts intensely travelling the world to the conferences, universities, companies and governments that will make it happen.
There is a complete chapter on cars in China, the country that buys the most, has some of the lowest costs and leapfrogging innovation but completely different market drivers with the government controlling supply, demand and regulation. Even Chinese manufacturers do not know what comes next, some of which is naked protectionism and some of which, like the recent reintroduction of HEV financial support, a surprise for other reasons. That is why the constant updating of IDTechEx reports, in contrast to those of many other analysts, is key.
For cars, the mechanical world of cogs, axles, pistons and brakes is becoming one of power electronics, complex electric machine systems, batteries and their successors. Integration and electric is the name of the game with components-in-a-box becoming smart wheels and smart inside and outside bodywork and seating. The dashboard and instruments will be made as one piece of formed composite with one company even planning highest-efficiency solar being the surface of this integrated dashboard to drive internal electrics. That featherweight solar layer was previously only affordable on satellites but its cost is promised to drop by one thousand.
Think optics, electrics, electronics and electrics combining in "structural electronics" to make the traditional component maker and assembler suddenly feel unwanted while there is a shortage of the new skills and manufacturing facilities. Smart wheel systems could mean more space, less weight and better steering and performance in slippery conditions. Key enabling technologies rapidly move to batteries, power electronics and often multiple traction motors. Then comes very different energy storage, power electronics (now including many new forms energy harvesting including regeneration), signal electronics and reversing electric machines - often several per car and sometimes with the motor electronics costing more than the motor, Toyota tell us. Add software and services: big time. This report carefully assesses where and when, winners and losers.
The report times peak car, peak HEV, peak PHEV and peak lead acid battery. For example, Nissan in Japan told us they have no plans to remove the lead acid battery from their pure electric cars but others are acting differently.
The report finds a huge market emerging for the cheapest, easiest way of converting existing production of cars to keep them legal as new global warming laws bite. This is the 48V mild hybrid: it will also peak in the next fifteen years but, before that, it will transmogrify into a hugely popular form of electric vehicle by becoming capable of several pure electric modes with engine off. The Mercedes broad move to 48V MH in 2017 is only part of this story.
The report's sober look at the detail reveals surprising aspects not popularly reported. For example, Fiat Chrysler is a laggard in EVs but they convinced us they are a leader in 48V MH. Why has Toyota just done a U turn on pure electric cars? Timing is all in this game.
The analysis reveals when Energy Independent Vehicles EIV become significant, not least as cars. It exposes the world of LIDAR, RADAR, cameras, software and so on for autonomy with their relative importance changing rapidly. The price trends are dramatic.
Is there a hare and tortoise story here with Tesla terrifying the industry by becoming the Apple of automotive but acquiring major quality and financial challenges? Volkswagen and Daimler have become ambivalent about fuel cell cars and Toyota has just decided to go big on pure electric, in a change of emphasis. Hyundai say they are the end game, Honda says they are an important option and yet others call them "fool" cells. Who is right? Will the Chinese flood the world with half-price basic electric cars? When?
It is very important that readers escape the evangelism of so many commentators and access the sober analysis of companies such as IDTechEx. For example, it breaks all the rules of safe manufacturing to radically change your product while increasing production one hundredfold yet we show how that is exactly what is happening with the lithium-ion batteries. Battery fires and explosions are ongoing but some car and battery makers have a superb record. Forecasts should not presume everything goes right. The anode, cathode, electrolyte and format are changing in a headlong race to smaller size and weight, less cooling and non-flammability. Only IDTechEx forecasts the numbers and dollars in nine categories of cars and car-like vehicles because it is plain silly to conflate 3 wheelers, golf cars and fuel cell cars with others.
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Table of Contents
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1.1. Purpose and definitions
1.2. Primary conclusions
1.3. Changing the world
1.4. Relevant megatrends beyond pollution
1.5. Why electric cars are chosen
1.5.1. Examples of market pull
1.5.2. Examples of market push:
1.6. Electric car technology choices and trends
1.6.1. End game is not as popularly portrayed
1.6.2. From range anxiety to range superiority
1.6.3. Electric car powertrain evolution
1.6.4. Key enabling technologies by powertrain
1.6.5. Increasing importance of power electronics: proliferation and enhancement
1.7. Why have autonomy?
1.7.1. Many autonomous car trials
1.7.2. Relative importance of powertrain and autonomy hardware markets 2017-2037
1.7.3. BMW view of commoditisation of autonomous car hardware to 2021
1.8. Evolution of battery energy density and cost
1.9. No steady progress to fewer components
1.9.1. Importance of benchmarking beyond cars
1.10. Mayhem in the car market
1.10.1. Growth to collapse: pure electric and commercial prevail number K
1.10.2. Escape routes for car makers and parts suppliers facing reducing sales 2030
1.11. Market forecasts for cars and car-like vehicles
1.11.1. Car categories characterised
1.11.2. Car market dynamics by sector
1.11.3. Global forecasts by number thousand, 2017-2027
1.11.4. Global forecasts by ex-factory price $k 2017-2027
1.11.5. Global forecasts by market value $ billion 2017-2027
1.11.6. Top five EV value markets 2017
1.11.7. Top five EV value markets 2027
1.12. Historic market data
1.12.1. Cars 2014-6 by powertrain and region Number K
1.12.2. Light vehicle plug-in by country to Sept 2016 cumulative and annual, per person
1.12.3. NEV China and other countries 2011-2015
1.13. Other analyst's views and manufacturer targets
1.14. League table of EV manufacturers 2017 $ billion
1.15. Battery vs fuel cell assessment end 2016
1.16. Premium pure electric cars in 2017
2. INTRODUCTION
2.1. What, where?
2.1.1. What are they?
2.1.2. What is the biggest applicational sector?
2.1.3. What is the end game?
2.1.4. Jargon buster
2.2. Technologies
2.2.1. Key enabling technologies are changing
2.2.2. Energy harvesting and regeneration becomes important
2.2.3. Voltages
2.3. Lessons past, present and future
2.4. Car demand: 15 year view
2.5. Examples of policy support mechanisms for plug-in electric cars
2.6. Territorial differences
3. THE CHINA CAR PHENOMENON
3.1. Largest car market, government driven
3.2. Chinese car manufacturers coming up fast
3.3. Car market drivers in China
3.3.1. Growth easing
3.3.2. Reinventing propulsion
3.3.3. New Energy Vehicles NEV
3.3.4. Battery Electric Vehicle and PHEV models planned
3.3.5. Government targets, influences, new value chain
3.4. U turn on hybrids HEV that do not plug in
3.5. Types of car manufacturing competitor
4. CAR POWERTRAINS
4.1. Overview: from range anxiety to range superiority
4.2. Choosing car powertrains
4.3. Influence of new ownership and business models
4.3.1. Ownership changes affect powertrains
4.4. Impact of autonomous driving on powertrains
4.5. Future powertrain options
4.6. Where cars are headed in 2030
4.7. Common enablers
4.8. Powertrain parameter priorities
4.9. Disruptive and incremental change
4.10. Death of the strong hybrid HEV that does not plug in?
4.11. Car manufacturer powertrain priorities 2016-2030
4.12. Primary trends powertrains 2017-2037
4.12.1. Overview by type
4.12.2. Sequence of electrification of powertrains
4.12.3. Base solutions with performance variants
4.13. Powertrain timeline 2016-2036
4.14. Car low carbon technology roadmap
4.14.1. Automotive Council UK roadmaps
4.14.2. Motorsport as an indicator of what may enter general use later
4.15. Influence of legislation - examples
4.15.1. Mild hybrid history
4.15.2. Existing 12V cars had almost run out of development potential
4.15.3. Evolution from stop-start to multifunctional rotating machines
4.15.4. How to make a 48V mild hybrid in latest form for a car
4.15.5. Different views concerning dual 12V + 48V systems expressed in our 2016 interviews and events
4.15.6. Heart of a 48V mild hybrid: popular starting point
4.15.7. Belt drive Jaguar Land Rover
4.15.8. ADEPT integrated starter generator project finished mid 2016
4.15.9. Two REM: SuperGen
4.15.10. Bottom line for 48V mild hybrid powertrain
5. STRONG HYBRID ELECTRIC POWERTRAINS
5.1. Strong "Full" Hybrid Electric Vehicles
5.2. Strong hybrid configurations
5.3. PHEV models then pure electric PEV
5.4. Series hybrid
5.5. Parallel hybrid
5.6. Some series and parallel hybrid variants
5.7. Toyota viewpoint
5.8. Plug in option: Porsche assessment
5.8.1. Example Peugeot 2016
5.9. Comparison of storage and range extender options
5.10. Range extenders in context
5.11. Fuel cells for traction
5.11.1. Fuel cell vehicle system
5.11.2. Fuel cell systems: size and refuelling
5.11.3. Fuel cell car prospects
5.12. Gas turbines, rotary combustion, free piston range extenders
6. PURE ELECTRIC VEHICLE PEV
6.1. Architecture
6.2. Powertrain: Peugeot
6.3. Nissan, Renault, Tesla, Volkswagen and trends
6.4. Trend in number and position of traction motors.
6.5. Energy storage issues
6.5.1. Traction battery
6.5.2. Battery Management System
6.5.3. Supercapacitor issues
6.6. Charging
7. ENERGY INDEPENDENT CARS
7.1. EIV operational choices
7.2. Key EIV technologies
7.2.1. EIV technology past, present and concept on land
7.3. Hanergy EIV cars in 2020 with GaAs photovoltaics
7.4. Immortus EIV car Australia
7.5. Stella Lux passenger car Netherlands
7.6. Car-like commercial EIV shows the way
7.7. Car-like Lizard tourist bus shows the way
8. SOME OF THE KEY ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES
8.1. The key enabling technologies are changing
8.1.1. Overview
8.1.2. Voltage trends
8.2. New electric powertrains will often be more complex
8.3. Energy storage
8.3.1. Rapid change
8.3.2. Rated power vs energy stored by technology
8.3.3. The role of energy storage technologies in electric vehicles
8.3.4. Comparison of energy storage options and configurations
8.3.5. EV battery impact
8.3.6. EV lithium battery pack price to 2030
8.3.7. Lithium-ion traction battery chemistry preferences
8.3.8. Forecasts of energy density by type 2016-2028
8.3.9. Rapid scale-up with rapid change of product spells trouble
8.3.10. Safety Warning
9. ROTATING ELECTRICAL MACHINES AND THEIR CONTROLS
9.1. Jargon buster
9.2. Typical electric car powertrain components and needs
9.2.1. Toyota compact car powertrain
9.2.2. Differences in need
9.3. Great improvements in traction motors with their controls are both needed and possible
9.4. Move to integration including in-wheel
9.4.1. Volkswagen approach to integration
9.4.2. Examples of trend to product integration: Protean, Toyota
9.4.3. Porsche view
9.4.4. UQM, Eaton and Pi Innovo
9.4.5. Eat or be eaten
9.5. Car motor systems for wider application/ volume
9.6. REM technologies performance in powertrains:
9.7. Toyota: Big Gains from Downsizing PM Motor for 2016-7 models
9.8. Move to more than one REM per car
9.8.1. Tesla, Mitsubishi
9.8.2. Reasons for multimotor trend Audi, Toyota, IFEVS
9.8.3. Oerlikon, IAV, Xtrac, Borg Warner, GKN, Yasa Motors
9.9. Effect of move to plug-in EVs: Porsche analysis
9.10. Technology choices
9.10.1. Technology preference by type of vehicle
9.10.2. Trend to high voltage, high speed motors
9.10.3. IDTechEx survey of 157 traction motor manufacturers: trends
9.10.4. Electric motor market dynamics
10. ENERGY HARVESTING INCLUDING REGENERATION
10.1. Energy harvesting: the new key enabling technology
10.2. Features of energy harvesting
10.3. Market drivers for energy harvesting
10.4. EH transducer options compared for all applications
10.5. Energy harvesting choices increase for cars
10.6. EH technology choice by intermittent power generated
10.7. EH transducer readiness compared: external vs regen
10.8. Experimental EH transducer options compared with the four winners so far
10.9. Powerful new EH inputs handled even with 48V Mild Hybrid
11. MEGATREND: STRUCTURAL ELECTRONICS
12. AUTONOMY TECHNOLOGIES
12.1. Terminology
12.2. Demand for autonomous cars
12.2.1. Commercial hire and taxi
12.2.2. Autonomous private cars?
12.2.3. Cost
12.2.4. First-ever public trial of a robo-taxi service
12.2.5. Hype curve for autonomy today
12.3. Convergence of technologies and new challenges
12.3.1. Overview
12.3.2. Legal issues BMW view
12.3.3. Operational challenges
12.3.4. Technical challenges, open platforms Delphi BMW
12.3.5. Ethical challenges
12.3.6. Insurance challenges
12.4. Technology of autonomous cars: Delphi Tesla Mobileye
12.4.1. Overview
12.4.2. Typical toolkit for car autonomy
12.4.3. Testing Google Delphi Mobileye Bosch Gateway
12.4.4. Simplifying the environment
12.4.5. Software vs hardware trends to 2030
12.4.6. Automated Driver Assistance ADAS route to Autonomy
12.4.7. Processing capability, limitation, sensor fusion
12.5. LIDAR RADAR camera compared
12.5.1. Comparing LIDAR, radar and camera performance
12.5.2. Mercedes: Radar and camera converge to biomimetic
12.5.3. LIDAR evolution
12.6. Current players in car autonomy