DESCRIPTION
Electric Motors for Electric Vehicles: $400 Billion Confusion
What do golf cars and heavy electric trucks have in common? There is still no agreement on the best type of electric motor to use in either of them. On IDTechEx analysis, the booming, confusing traction motor business will rise to around $400 billion in 2027. Its new report, "Electric Motors for Electric Vehicles 2017-2027" navigates the jargon, the design options and, yes, the disagreement. The changing needs and evolving technology are matched to create forecasts and technology timelines based on intensive recent travel and interviews by PhD level analysts.
Rotating electric machines REM propel electric vehicles at least some all of the time by land, water and air. In a hybrid the motor may sometimes have to run hotter due to hot engine systems nearby and tougher duty cycles. This affects motor design as do cost-performance compromises for the very different duty cycles and environments experienced by vehicles land, water and air. Off-road vehicle REMs are very different from on-road. The second most expensive part of an EV after the energy storage is typically the REM system including its intimately related motor controller.
The report reveals how the REM system is taking a larger share of cost over the years as simpler batteries reduce in cost. By contrast, REM systems are variously being asked to grab regenerative energy, eliminate transmission, provide better speed/ torque characteristics and even form part of the structure such as tucked into the wheel with brake and controller. In hybrids add takeoff. Creeping and active cruising with engine off and start and boost the engine. Crucially, in addition to becoming motor-generators, more REMs are being used per vehicle for reasons explained in the report which has in-wheel forecasts for that form of multi-motor.
"Electric Motors for Electric Vehicles 2017-2027" reports that, increasingly, the choice of REM system benefits the unique selling propositions of the vehicle. Where it eliminates the need for a gearbox it can increase range 15%. Extreme power-to-weight ratio REMs are sought for most vehicles.
A pure- electric heavy construction vehicle with several quiet REMs appropriately placed may have vectored traction so it can cross roads without damaging them and be legally used indoors and at night time as needed. It may operate implements with improved precision and response time and create electricity instead of heat when the vehicle or the implements brake. Start-stop is smoother. Emissions, acceleration, ride, fuel consumption and autonomy of navigation and energy are improved with better REMs. Emissions are reduced or eliminated. There are chapters on how this all fits in with all vehicles, the technology being fully explained.
New business opportunities, new skills
Mechanical parts are rapidly becoming replaced by electrical and electronic ones, creating many new business opportunities. For instance there is a shortage of good designers of motor controllers. The variety of EVs is becoming greater so we now have special coreless motors for the multi-billion dollar market for drones that has arrived from nowhere. Small agricultural robots are being contemplated for agriculture: "elephants to ants" that will change completely the type of REM system required. The new robots mining at the bottom of the sea call for something else completely. The basics are explained from P0 to P4 REM positioning to the merits and popularity of design options from asynchronous to PM, SWM, BSG, ISG and more. Future popularity of in-wheel vs near-wheel and inboard? Axial vs radial flux? It is all here with a full listing of traction REM manufacturers and their typical offerings.
The report even analyses 48V mild hybrid motor-generators as well because later versions of these cars, light commercial vehicles and trucks will have brief electric traction modes. They are the lowest cost way of modifying internal combustion vehicle production to stay legal under impending carbon dioxide emissions laws and they give useful fuel saving but the REM is challenging.
Ten important trends receive particular attention: Multifunction. Proliferation. Integration. Power increase. Voltage increase. Less metal/ more electronics. New technology preferences. Changed location. Less cooling.
It is not all confusing. Quadcopters nearly all have an outrunner PM REM and forklifts are largely hooked on asynchronous motors. Sense is made of the rest through infograms, roadmaps and forecasts.
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Table of Contents
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1.1. Focus of this report, primary trends, opportunities
1.1.1. Ten important trends
1.1.2. Value chain severely disrupted
1.1.3. Great improvements in traction motors with their controls are both needed and possible
1.2. Example of multiple REM per vehicle
1.2.1. Examples of manned electric aircraft in 2016/7 with multiple drive motors
1.2.2. The race for lightweight electric aircraft motors
1.2.3. Examples of trend to product integration
1.3. Powertrain focus
1.4. Motor-generator REM duty cycle, type, function
1.5. Motor-generator REM improvements needed, number of manufacturers/ developers
1.6. REM technology
1.6.1. Choices
1.6.2. Technology preference by type of vehicle
1.7. Market forecasts
1.7.1. Type of powertrain for 46 types of electric vehicle
1.7.2. In wheel motors vs near wheel motors
1.7.3. In-wheel motor global market for vehicles with four or more wheels units million 2017-2027
1.8. Powertrain forecasts by 46 types of electric vehicle
1.9. Motor and powertrain forecasts by 46 types of electric vehicle
1.10. Market size 2017-2027for electric vehicles and 48V mild hybrid cars (non-EV and EV form) - Number (thousand)
1.10.1. Market size 2017-2027 for electric vehicles and 48V mild hybrid cars (non-EV and EV form) - Number (thousand)
1.11. Rapidly increasing market for powertrain REMs for electric vehicles
1.12. Voltage trends alter REM design
1.13. Permanent magnet price and investment trend
1.13.1. Neodymium price hikes
1.13.2. Hitachi Metals $172 million magnet investment by 2018
2. INTRODUCTION
2.1. Jargon buster
2.1.1. Innovation often first with large motors
2.2. Traction motor technology choices
2.2.1. Brushes
2.2.2. Formats and flux direction
2.2.3. Brushless options
2.2.4. Super efficient PM motor drives most economical EV
2.2.5. Siemens 260 kW electric aircraft motor makes first public flight July 2016
2.2.6. Premium pure electric cars with PM motors in 2017
2.2.7. Hype curve for car powertrains in 2017
2.3. Rotating electrical machines in powertrain
2.3.1. Needs by type of powertrain
2.3.2. Heart of a first generation 48V mild hybrid: BSG
2.3.3. Belt drive and integrated starter generators for 48V mild hybrids
2.3.4. Example of reversible rotating machine for 48V mild hybrid: Bosch "E-Machine"
2.3.5. REM technologies performance in powertrains: the show so far
2.3.6. Axial flux may increase its tiny market share?
2.3.7. Axial Flux Traction Motor With 15% Advantage Taiwan
2.3.8. Axial Flux Traction Motor With 15% Advantage
2.3.9. Novel Axial Field Switched Reluctance EV Motor India
2.3.10. Toyota: Big Gains from Downsizing PM Motor for 2016-7 models
2.4. One business land, water, air - hybrid and pure electric
2.5. Trend to two or more REM per vehicle
2.5.1. Reasons
2.5.2. Innovative two motor formats: car, motorcycle
2.5.3. Xtrac's new EV transmission system features dual motors with torque vectoring
2.5.4. Efficiency gains of distributed drive
2.5.5. Two-motor mopeds and motorcycles
2.5.6. Performance motorcycle goes asynchronous
2.6. Trend to product integration
2.6.1. Strong hybrid cars
2.6.2. Volkswagen approach to device integration
2.6.3. Integration challenges of simulation of electric machines and inverters
2.6.4. 48V mild hybrid integrated starter generators
2.6.5. Two types of in-wheel motor
2.6.6. In-wheel motors by size of vehicle, with examples, benefits sought and challenges.
2.7. Trend to high voltage, high speed motors in strong hybrids, pure electric vehicles
2.8. Flywheel KERS
2.8.1. Flybrid KERS used by Wrightbus UK on hybrid buses
2.9. Trend to vertical integration in supply chain
2.10. Motor Controls
2.10.1. Overview
2.10.2. Cost and integration issues
2.10.3. New materials in switched reluctance EV motor
3. TRACTION MOTORS OFF-ROAD: CONSTRUCTION, AGRICULTURE, MINING, MILITARY, MARINE
3.1. Needs are different from on-road
3.2. Progression of electrification
3.3. Trend to electric drive and standardisation
3.4. Sizes of off-road vehicles with many traction motor opportunities
3.5. Wheel loaders with very different traction motor solutions
3.5.1. Huddig hybrid near wheel
3.5.2. Kramer 5055e asynchronous
3.5.3. LeTourneau switched reluctance
3.6. Agricultural tractor John Deere
3.7. Oerlikon SR motor in large hybrids
3.8. Planned PM synchronous heavy duty drive UQM, Eaton, Pi Innovo
3.9. Dana in-axle motor
3.10. Ship propulsion motors PM synchronous and asynchronous
4. 48V MILD HYBRID BSG, ISG: MAINLY CAR, LIGHT COMMERCIAL, TRUCK
4.1. Why 48V?
4.2. Where 48V mild hybrids fit in
4.3. Motivation
4.4. 48V mild hybrid system technology
4.5. Example CPT
4.6. Evolution from stop-start to multifunctional rotating machines
4.7. How to make a 48V mild hybrid in latest form for a car
4.8. Toolkit for 48V mild hybrid powertrains
4.9. The key components of the system options are mostly different
4.10. Not just cars!
4.11. Reversible rotating machine technology choices for 48V mild hybrids
4.12. How Continental sees the asynchronous option
4.13. Example of test beds for 48V REMs ADEPT project
4.14. Different views concerning dual 12V + 48V systems
4.14.1. Views expressed in IDTechEx 2016 interviews and events
4.15. Best solutions for market needs 2016-2030: interviews
4.16. Modelling of 48V introduction: Volkswagen SUV data with IDTechEx comment Gen 1&2
4.17. Modelling of 48V introduction using Volkswagen SUV data with IDTechEx comment Gen2&3
4.18. Types of conventional and electric vehicle with those that have or will have many 48V systems shown in grey
5. ELECTRIC MOTORS, MOTOR-GENERATORS FOR STRONG HYBRIDS
5.1. Relative needs
5.2. Plug in option
5.3. Plug in hybrid potential in higher performance/ heavy vehicles
5.4. The Tesla approach to electric traction motors
5.4.1. Motor history to Tesla Model 3
5.4.2. Comparisons
5.4.3. Interview
5.5. Different views on usefulness of parallel hybrids in future: Siemens, Ricardo
5.6. Siemens typical hybrid system components based on automotive standard TS 16949
5.7. Ricardo view of long haul options
5.8. GKN advances in 2016
5.9. Roundup
6. ELECTRIC MOTORS, MOTOR-GENERATORS FOR PURE ELECTRIC VEHICLES
6.1. The end game
6.2. Voltage trends for pure electric vehicles
6.3. Great variety
6.3.1. Nanoflowcell 48V premium cars
6.4. Pure electric cars and similar vehicles
6.5. UAVs and multicopters
6.5.1. REMs
6.5.2. Outrunner motors for manned aircraft
6.5.3. Drive electronics
6.6. Dyson robot vacuum cleaner
6.7. Energy Independent Vehicles EIV
6.7.1. Why we want more than mechanical energy independence
6.7.2. Energy Independent Vehicles: definition and function
6.7.3. The EIV powertrain for land vehicles
6.7.4. EIV operational choices
6.7.5. Do not forget wind
6.7.6. Key EIV technologies
6.7.7. Stella Lux passenger car Netherlands
6.7.8. Solar racer derivative: Immortus passenger car EIV Australia
6.7.9. POLYMODEL micro EV Italy
6.7.10. Lizard EIV wakes with the sun: NFH-H microbus China
7. EXAMPLES OF INTERVIEWS 2015-2016
7.1. Ongoing interviews by IDTechEx USA, East Asia, Europe
7.2. Interviews with Professor Pietro Perlo 26 April/16 Nov 2016
7.3. Protean Electric UK 24 November 2016
7.4. ALABC/ILA London 12 Jan 2016
7.5. MAHLE March 2016
7.6. Visit to Controlled Power Technologies CPT Ltd UK
7.6.1. Key competencies in the company
7.6.2. The squeeze on strong hybrids
7.6.3. Current priorities
7.6.4. Use of switched reluctance technology
7.6.5. SpeedStart competitive advantage
7.6.6. Small cars at 48V?
7.6.7. Some relevant collaborative vehicle projects
7.6.8. Reversible machines throughout the vehicle
7.6.9. ADEPT
7.6.10. Boats and aircraft
7.6.11. TIGERS regenerative harvesting
8. ANALYSIS OF 170 TRACTION MOTOR MANUFACTURERS
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