DESCRIPTION
Small manned electric vehicles from e-bikes to car-like micro EVs will be a market of over $41bn.
Small manned electric vehicles - e-bikes to car-like micro EVs - are closely related and often sell in the largest numbers. The rag bag of names obscures the fact that they are closely related and add up to a very large market. Although car-like micro EVs are usually lower in cost than regular cars, together with two wheel EVs, they will reach over $41 billion in 2028 on IDTechEx analysis. Eight sub-categories are forecasted by numbers and value from 2018-2028. Golf cars are seen to be a static market, whereas e-motorcycles are at a very early stage and the others in different stages of maturity. Nearly all are pure electric using batteries as energy storage. Most are on-road vehicles so the commonality shines through.
These manned small vehicles below cars are uniquely significant in addressing megatrends and in pioneering energy independent, unlimited travel. Mobility vehicles for the disabled cope with the ageing of the population and the epidemic of obesity whereas car-like micro EVs help emerging nations be mobile and prevent air pollution. Many of these small electric vehicles act as the missing affordable transition product between an e-bike and an e-car. However, they also fill market gaps everywhere, including in developed countries where they help the small manufacturer and, often in customised form, they perform many tasks in airports, estates and elsewhere.
Micro EVs are not required to meet crash tests and other requirements of car homologation. In some countries, minors and those with no license or insurance can drive them. Embracing quad bikes, all-terrain vehicles, Neighborhood Electric Vehicles (NEVs), quadricycles in Europe, microcars and so on, they are much simpler than cars and often one tenth of the price. Micro EVs take the form of three wheelers in the main with many four wheelers. They include farmers' "cars" in China, e-tuktuks in the Philippines, where over three million polluting tuktuk taxis need replacing, and e-rickshaws in India.
The extreme lightweighting possible with these micro EVs means they are among the first categories to spawn energy independent vehicles (EIVs) that never plug in or fill up. So far, that mostly involves solar cells that are a load-bearing part of the body. This is "structural electronics" replacing the old "components-in-a-box".
In 2028, e-scooters will dominate the small electric vehicle business followed by three-wheel micro EVs. Close behind, four wheel car-like versions and e-bikes are also set for robust sales. The basis of this unique report, putting the much vaunted e-bikes in the context of allied vehicles, is mainly research in 2017. Intensive global travel, interviews and analysis were carried out by PhD level experts. Latest conference material and presentations from across the world are shown.
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Table of Contents
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1.1. Forecasts for small electric vehicles 2018-2028
1.2. Reasons for growth
1.2.1. Competition and profitability
1.2.2. Opportunities
1.2.3. Typical requirement
1.3. The USA electric bicycle market
1.4. Effect of 2015 oil price collapse on electric vehicles
1.5. Electric vehicle end game: free non-stop road travel
1.5.1. Dynamic charging
1.5.2. Many harvests together
1.5.3. Solar roads
1.5.4. Many other options
1.5.5. AWE and bladeless wind turbines
1.5.6. Multi-mode, minimal storage
1.5.7. New storage, lightweighting, streamlining
1.5.8. Funding for development of lightweight solar modules on vehicles
1.5.9. Bottom line
1.6. Micro EV market
1.6.1. Honda Neowing concept hybrid electric tricycle announced October 2015
1.6.2. Elio Motors
1.7. News in 2016
1.7.1. E-vehicle maker Clean Motion to invest $10m in India
1.7.2. PodRide Blends Car-Like Function with Bike-Like Ride
1.7.3. Airbus creates world's first 3D-printed motorcycle
1.7.4. Victory Motorcycles aim for the podium at Isle of Man TT with an all-new electric motorcycle
1.7.5. Alta Motor
1.7.6. Performance motorcycle goes asynchronous
1.7.7. Electra Meccanica SOLO in full production July 2016
1.7.8. Silex Power announce the Valene Black Mamba three-wheeler - August 2016
1.7.9. Energica Fast Charge Infrastructure Program - September 2016
1.7.10. Union Motion unveil first prototype - November 2016
1.7.11. Electric trikes Philippines - November 2016
1.7.12. Market boost from deregulation - India, late 2016
1.8. News in 2017
1.8.1. Cake off-road motorcycle
1.8.2. Vigo Motorcycles
1.8.3. Alta Motors
1.8.4. Essence Motorcycles
1.8.5. Evoke China
1.8.6. Now scooters have regen braking
1.8.7. Japan Post and Honda
1.8.8. Helix Motors Inc
1.8.9. Harley Davidson - Project LiveWire
1.8.10. Tacita Italy
1.8.11. Vespa Elettrica Italy
1.8.12. Energica Italy
1.8.13. TAILG Electric Vehicle Co China
2. CAR-LIKE VEHICLES NOT HOMOLOGATED AS CARS: MICRO EV, QUADRICYCLE, E TRIKE, NEV, GOLF CAR
2.1. Many names, common factors
2.2. Car-like vehicles that evade restrictions, taxes and other costs
2.3. Philippines delay - watch Bangladesh
2.4. Terra Motors Interview
2.4.1. Introduction
2.4.2. Latest market appraisal
2.4.3. India
2.4.4. Bangladesh
2.4.5. Vietnam
2.4.6. Philippines
2.4.7. Japan
2.4.8. IDTechEx conclusion
2.4.9. History
2.5. Micro EV manufacturers
2.6. Listing of manufacturers beyond golf cars
2.7. Toyota i-ROAD e-trike is a scooter/ Micro EV crossover
2.8. Micro EV racing cars
2.9. Golf cars
2.9.1. What is included
2.9.2. Market drivers
2.9.3. Listing of manufacturers
3. LIGHT ELECTRIC VEHICLES
3.1. Definition of a light electric vehicle
3.2. How good does it have to be?
3.3. What retail price?
3.4. What is an electric bicycle?
3.4.1. e-bikes in Europe
3.4.2. Pedelec
3.4.3. Power on Demand bikes and other categories
3.4.4. Electric vehicles for disabled and others
3.4.5. Power restriction
3.4.6. Notable regulations
3.5. Universal Technical Terms for Ebikes
3.6. Choices of LEV
3.6.1. Rocket drag bike USA
3.6.2. Ford USA
3.6.3. Grunner e-bike Croatia
3.6.4. MOAR folding e-bike USA
3.6.5. Moveo foldable scooter Hungary
3.6.6. Motorised Skateboard Yuneec China
3.6.7. Hubless Scooter E'lution EVO Australia
3.6.8. Skateboards and similar in 2015
3.6.9. VeloMetro Veemo rental hybrid
3.7. The Industry of LEVs
3.7.1. Taiwan and China
3.7.2. Outside Taiwan and China
3.7.3. Too much cost cutting
3.8. Tricycles to reduce accidents and help policing
3.8.1. Liberty Trike from Electric Bike Technologies
3.8.2. Twikke Europe
4. MOBILITY FOR THE DISABLED
4.1. The demographic time-bomb
4.1.1. Ageing population and the dependent elderly
4.1.2. Laws make mobility easier
4.2. Types of mobility vehicle
4.2.1. Growth by new market segments
4.2.2. Interchina Industry Group China
4.2.3. Solar powered power chair in 2013
4.3. Market drivers
4.3.1. Geographical distribution
4.3.2. Needs creating new segments
4.3.3. What is driving regional differences?
4.3.4. Zhejiang R&P Industry China
4.3.5. Pride Mobility, USA
4.3.6. Toyota Japan
4.3.7. Scoozy Netherlands
4.4. Listing of manufacturers
5. LEV MARKETS, MARKET DRIVERS AND FORECASTS
5.1. Markets by territory
5.1.1. China
5.1.2. Japan
5.1.3. India
5.1.4. Europe
5.1.5. USA
5.1.6. Worldwide
5.2. Markets by providers
5.3. Bicycle Brands with ebikes
5.3.1. USA
5.3.2. European Bike Brands
5.3.3. Netherlands brands:
5.4. Channels of distribution
5.5. Market forecasts and drivers
5.6. Drivers of market
5.6.1. Fuel price
5.6.2. Fuel availability
5.6.3. Efficiency
5.6.4. Cost of government subsidy
5.6.5. Traffic congestion
5.6.6. Parking congestion
5.6.7. Urbanization
5.6.8. Air pollution
5.6.9. Government regulation
5.6.10. Personal responsibility
5.6.11. Total cost of ownership
5.6.12. Aging populations
5.6.13. Living in apartments
5.6.14. Negative factors
5.6.15. Bans in Malaysia and elsewhere?
6. ELECTRIC SCOOTERS
6.1. Market dynamics
6.2. Dominated by East Asia for the next decade
6.2.1. Brazil
6.2.2. China
6.2.3. Europe
6.2.4. France
6.2.5. Germany
6.2.6. India
6.2.7. Japan
6.2.8. Taiwan
6.2.9. Korea
6.3. Folding scooters and energy harvesting
7. ELECTRIC MOTORCYCLES
7.1. Tipping point for e-motorcycles and e-maxi scooters
7.2. Three wheelers
7.2.1. Announced in May 2016
7.2.2. Announced in late 2016
7.3. Barriers to adoption
7.4. Timelines: technology and markets
7.5. Forecasts: units, price, market value 2018-2028
7.6. E-motorcycle market share
7.7. Basis of forecasts: e-motorcycles etc.
7.8. Components and voltage trends
7.9. Performance/price compromises by category
7.10. Manufacturers by country
7.11. Cost trend vs conventional alternatives
7.12. Comparison of 59 models of e-motorcycle and similar vehicle from 39 manufacturers
IDTECHEX RESEARCH REPORTS AND CONSULTANCY
TABLES
1.1. Small electric vehicle number in thousands 2018-2028
1.2. Small electric vehicle unit value in dollars thousand ex-factory 2018-2028
1.3. Small electric vehicle total global market value in dollar billions 2018-2028
1.4. Some types of micro EV
2.1. Listing of manufacturers beyond golf cars
2.2. 19 examples of golf EV manufacturers
4.1. Statistics relevant to the challenge to society caused by ageing population
4.2. The continental percentage split of markets for vehicles for the disabled by value in 2016
4.3. The percentage split of market for vehicles for the disabled by country within Europe
4.4. Features of mobility vehicles that may hold up the price by offering more in future
4.5. The percentage distribution of manufacture between Taiwan and Mainland China by value of vehicles for the disabled 2005, 2010 and 2015
4.6. 82 examples of manufacturers of EVs for the disabled by country
5.1. Global sales of e-bikes/pedelec by number, ex-factory unit price in thousands of dollars and total value in billions of dollars, 2018-2028, rounded
5.2. Chinese cities banning or restricting electric bikes.
7.1. Timeline of key events powering the rapid growth of sales of e-motorcycles, e-maxi scooters and similar three wheel EVs. Technology tends shown in grey.
7.2. Global market for e-motorcycles 2018-2028 number K, unit price ex-factory US$ thousand, market value, US$ billion
7.3. 60 models of 39 manufacturers of e-motorcycles and allied vehicles compared by picture, claims and with IDTechEx appraisal
FIGURES
1.1. Small electric vehicle number in thousands 2018-2028
1.2. Small electric vehicle unit value in dollars thousand ex-factory 2018-2028
1.3. Small electric vehicle total global market value in dollar billions 2018-2028
1.4. Immortus solar sports car concept. Immortus is likely to be registered as a micro EV/ Quadricycle at least initially due to extreme lightweighting and lack of funds for car homologation testing
1.5. Immortus ghost diagram
1.6. Swedish company Midsummer are developing lightweight solar modules for vehicles
1.7. Examples of micro EVs for racing, agriculture, golf etc.
1.8. An electric rickshaw allows smaller people to taxi people, by providing pedalling assistance. This example is operated by a young woman in London
1.9. Honda NEOWING
1.10. Elio Motors' three-wheeled car
1.11. Joachim Zettler (left), CEO of Airbus APWorks GmbH, and Airbus Group CEO Tom Enders presenting 'Light Rider', the world's first 3D-printed motorcycle
1.12. Victory RR racing motorcycle
1.13. Lito Sora at EVS Montreal Canada
1.14. Electra Meccanica SOLO
1.15. Valene Black Mamba
1.16. TAILG motorbikes designed for children
2.1. The Daimler Smart, left, is a mainstream car subject to tax, insurance, crash tests etc. whereas the G-Whiz from India, right, is registered as a quadricycle and was the best-selling pure electric car in the UK for ten years with
2.2. Renault Twizy quadricycle which is selling over ten thousand within two years from launch. The standard model has no windows
2.3. Chinese micro EV cars in China. Most of them have three wheels
2.4. E-trikes
2.5. Logos compared
2.6. Expensive version for developed countries and basic version for undeveloped countries
2.7. Toyota i-ROAD e-trike
2.8. Examples of solar racing cars
2.9. E-Rex micro EV racing car
2.10. Tonaro golf and general purpose vehicle from China
2.11. Suzhou Eagle two and four seat golf cars from China
2.12. Yongkang Fourstar golf vehicles from China
2.13. Shadong Wuzheng golf cars from China
2.14. Jinhua Ryder golf car from China
3.1. Chinese repair in the street
3.2. Chinese e-bike tire repair
3.3. E-scooter or e-bike?
3.4. Traditional Chinese e-bike
3.5. Optibike USA "The Ferrari of Electric Bikes"
3.6. Small French folding e-bike
3.7. DK City db0 e-bike
3.8. Voltitude folding pedelec
3.9. Chinese domestic ebike left and Currie IZ ViaRapido ebike right
3.10. Electric motor scooters in China
3.11. Electric moped by Ultra Motor
3.12. Electric motorcycle by Vectrix
3.13. Electric mini scooters by Currie Technologies
3.14. Segway personal transporter
3.15. Toyota Winglet personal transporter
3.16. 3 wheel LEV with windshield and cover
3.17. The folding Yike Bike from New Zealand
3.18. Ebike by Ultra Motor A2B
3.19. LEV Shop Window with e-bike.
3.20. EU small folding e-bike
3.21. Chinese ebike loaded down
3.22. Chinese e-bike rider
3.23. Chinese e-bike with two riders
3.24. E-bikes used at Chinese factories
3.25. China LEVs at stop light
3.26. E-bike Food Delivery for Papa John's in China
3.27. E-bike food delivery by A2B Ultra Motor
3.28. LEV four wheeler for seniors - a crossover from LEVs to mobility for the disabled
3.29. Shawn Lawless Rocket drag bike
3.30. Ford e-bikes
3.31. Grunner e-bike Croatia
3.32. MOAR folding e-bike USA
3.33. Moveo foldable scooter Hungary
3.34. Yuneec motorised skateboard
3.35. E'lution hubless push scooter
3.36. Hoverboard specification
3.37. Hoverboard overview
3.38. The Veemo is a three-wheeled enclosed bicycle with an electric-assist motor
3.39. IBD Bloomfield Bikes Ebike Display in CT USA
3.40. Electric tricycle
3.41. CargoTrike with solar panel giving unlimited range as long as the sun is out.
3.42. Examples of three wheel leisure and delivery vehicles promoted at EVS26 in California May 2012
3.43. Liberty Trike
3.44. TriBred electric Trikke patrol vehicle and general purpose version
4.1. Percentage of dependent elderly 1970 to 2040
4.2. Pihsiang Shoprider pure electric mobility vehicle for the disabled
4.3. The Electric Car (INEC-KARO) for the disabled from Interchina Industry Group
4.4. Solar powered power chair vehicle for the mobility impaired
4.5. Zhejiang R&P Industry ES 413
4.6. Pride Jazzy on snow - making new things possible
4.7. Toyota single seat enclosed vehicle for disabled mobility Nagoya October 2014
4.8. Scoozy mobility scooter
5.1. Hero Electric of India Flash Ebike 1
5.2. Pedego
5.3. Electric vehicle energy consumption per passenger kilometer with full occupation
6.1. Peugeot e-Vivacity
6.2. E-scooter promotion in India
6.3. Terra motors electric scooter with smartphone
6.4. Sanyo system
6.5. CM Partner e-motorbike
6.6. KPV scooter
7.1. The Zvexx motorcycle
7.2. Price vs battery pack capacity kWh for e-motorcycles and some scooters
7.3. Market number share by manufacturer in 2014
7.4. Categories of e-motorcycle and allied e-vehicle in survey that are in production or likely to be in production soon
7.5. Voltage trends for electric vehicles, showing lithium-ion batteries taking over.
7.6. Spread of results in survey. Performance comparison of heavy and light e-motorcycles and e-maxi-scooters in city range, top speed and acceleration. Only models in production or intended for production are compared. Similarities sh
7.7. Number of manufacturers by country
7.8. Battery size kWh vs vehicle cost showing how small electric vehicles have lower up-front cost than conventional ones and the breakeven is moving up to embrace e-motorcycles and e-cars over the coming decade.
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