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World demand to rise over 5% annually through 2018
Worldwide demand for buses is projected to rise more than five percent per annum to over 600,000 units in 2018, twice as fast as the 2008-2013 rate of increase. The number of buses in use worldwide is expected to exceed eight million units in 2018.
Five major trends will fuel growth:
Expansion in the size of the global urban population.
Rising government investment in public transportation networks, particularly bus rapid transit systems, to reduce traffic congestion and improve air quality.
Growth in the number and size of private transportation companies.
Climbing worldwide sales of electric, hybrid, compressed natural gas (CNG), and liquefied natural gas (LNG) models, as many countries adopt more stringent emissions standards and environmental considerations grow in importance.
Growth in the use of Type C and other school bus models because of government efforts to expand access to education, safety concerns, and more favorable conditions in the large US market.
However, global bus sales increases will be restrained by rising demand for and use of motorcycles and light motor vehicles for transportation as income levels climb in many developing nations. The expansion of rail transportation networks around the world is also expected to moderate bus market growth.
Asia/Pacific region to post largest gains in demand
The Asia/Pacific region is projected to account for more than three-fifths of all new bus demand through 2018. Growth is expected to pick up in both India and China, the region's two largest bus mar-kets, after declining moderately during the second part of the 2008-2013 period. Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea are also expected to perform considerably better between 2013 and 2018 as older buses are replaced, often with alternative fuel models, while Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, and other developing nations will continue to see impressive bus sales growth. Suppliers to the Asia/Pacific bus market will benefit greatly from further government spending on bus transportation networks and the expansion of the tourism and private transportation indus-tries. Sales of Type C and other purpose-built school buses are also expected to advance sharply, especially in China.
Growth to accelerate in North America, Western Europe
Following a period of sizable losses, demand for buses in North America and Western Europe is projected to rebound noticeably, as sales of electric, hybrid, CNG, and LNG buses grow. Since 2003, demand for these models has increased dramatically in these two regions from relatively small existing market bases because of the adoption of more stringent emissions standards (e.g., Euro VI for buses in December 2013), and this trend is expected to continue. Many cities, private transportation companies, and other end users have become much more sensitive to environmental issues. In addition, suppliers to the North American market will benefit from a rebound in Type C school bus sales, while Western Europe is expected to post gains in de-mand for private and public transit buses and motor coaches to replace aging fleets. Difficult economic conditions in many West European countries caused governments to delay transit bus replacement.
Study coverage
This Freedonia industry study, World Buses presents historical demand data plus forecasts for 2018 and 2023 by fuel type, product, world region, and for 26 countries. The study also analyzes market environment factors, details the industry structure, assesses company market share and profiles 41 industry participants worldwide.
Table of Contents
INTRODUCTION
I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
II. MARKET ENVIRONMENT
General
World Economic Overview
Recent Historical Trends
World Economic Outlook
Personal Income Trends
World Demographic Overview
Population
Urban Population
World Light Vehicle & Motorcycle Overview
Light Vehicle Demand
Motorcycle Demand
Energy Prices
Technology Trends
Legal & Regulatory Environment
Pricing Trends
III. OVERVIEW
IV. NORTH AMERICA
Economic Overview
Bus Supply & Demand
Bus Market Outlook
United States
Canada
Mexico
V. WESTERN EUROPE
Economic Overview
Bus Supply & Demand
Bus Market Outlook
France
Germany
United Kingdom
Italy
Spain
Other Western Europe
VI. ASIA/PACIFIC
Economic Overview
Bus Supply & Demand
Bus Market Outlook
China
India
South Korea
Japan
Indonesia
Thailand
Other Asia/Pacific
Vietnam
Australia
Taiwan
All Other
VII. OTHER REGIONS
Central & South America
Eastern Europe
Economic Overview
Bus Supply & Demand
Bus Market Outlook
Russia
Other Eastern Europe
Africa/Mideast
Economic Overview
Bus Supply & Demand
Bus Market Outlook
Turkey
Saudi Arabia
Other Africa/Mideast
VIII. INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
Company Profiles
Advanced Public Transport Systems, see VDL Groep
Alexander Dennis Limited
Allied Specialty Vehicles Incorporated
Anhui Ankai Automobile Company Limited
Ashok Leyland Limited
Berkshire Hathaway Incorporated
Blue Bird Corporation
Carrosserie HESS AG
Champion Bus, see Allied Specialty Vehicles
China First Automobile Works Group Corporation
CNH Industrial NV
Collins Bus, see Allied Specialty Vehicles
Consorcio G Grupo Dina SA de CV
Daimler AG
Detroit Diesel, see Daimler
Dina Camiones, see Consorcio G Grupo Dina
Eicher Motors Limited
ElDorado National California, see Allied Specialty Vehicles
ElDorado National Kansas, see Allied Specialty Vehicles
Elkhart Coach, see Berkshire Hathaway
EvoBus, see Daimler
Federal Coach, see Allied Specialty Vehicles
Fiat Industrial, see CNH Industrial
Forest River, see Berkshire Hathaway
GAZ OAO
General Coach America, see Allied Specialty Vehicles
General Motors Company
Glaval Bus, see Berkshire Hathaway
Goshen Coach, see Allied Specialty Vehicles
Haci Ömer Sabanci Holding AS
Hino Motors, see Toyota Motor
Hyundai Motor Company
IC Bus, see Navistar International
International Indústria de Motores da América do Sul, see Navistar International
Irizar S Cooperativa
IRIZAR-TVS, see Ashok Leyland and Irizar S Cooperativa
Iveco, see CNH Industrial
Isuzu Motors Limited
J-Bus, see Isuzu Motors and Toyota Motor
Kuozui Motors, see Toyota Motor
Liaoning SG Automotive Group Company Limited
MAN, see Volkswagen
Marcopolo SA
Micro Bird, see Blue Bird
Minsky Avtomobilny Zavod JSC
Mitsubishi Fuso Truck and Bus, see Daimler
Motor Coach Industries Incorporated
Navistar International Corporation
NEOPLAN Bus, see Volkswagen
New Flyer Industries Incorporated
North American Bus Industries, see New Flyer Industries
Nova Bus, see Volvo
Optare, see Ashok Leyland
Polomex, see Daimler and Marcopolo
Prevost Car, see Volvo
Proterra Incorporated
Scania, see Volkswagen
Solaris Bus & Coach SA
Starcraft Bus, see Berkshire Hathaway
Superpolo, see Marcopolo
Tata Marcopolo Motors, see Marcopolo and Tata Motors
Tata Motors Limited
Temsa Global Sanayi ve Ticaret, see Haci Ömer Sabanci Holding
Thomas Built Buses, see Daimler
Thor Industries Incorporated
Toyota Motor Corporation
Van Hool NV
VDL Groep BV
VE Commercial Vehicles, see Eicher Motors and Volvo
Volgren Australia, see Marcopolo
Volkswagen AG
Volvo AB
Wright Group Limited
Xiamen King Long Motor Group Company Limited
Yangzhou Yaxing Motor Coach Company Limited
Zhengzhou Yutong Bus Company Limited
Zhongtong Bus Holding Company Limited
Zyle Daewoo Bus Corporation
Other Companies Mentioned in Study
LIST OF TABLES
SECTION I -- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
SECTION II -- MARKET ENVIRONMENT
World Gross Domestic Product by Region
World Per Capita GDP
World Population by Region & Age
World Urban Population by Region
World Light Vehicle Demand by Region
World Motorcycle Demand by Region
SECTION III -- OVERVIEW
World Bus Demand by Region
World Buses in Use by Region
World Bus Production by Region
World Bus Net Exports by Region
World Bus Demand by Product
World Motor Coach Demand by Region
World Transit Bus Demand by Region
World Other Bus Demand by Product & Region
World Bus Demand by Fuel Type
SECTION IV -- NORTH AMERICA
North America: Bus Supply & Demand
North America: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product & Fuel Type
United States: Bus Supply & Demand
United States: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product
Canada: Bus Supply & Demand
Canada: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product
Mexico: Bus Supply & Demand
Mexico: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product
SECTION V -- WESTERN EUROPE
Western Europe: Bus Supply & Demand
Western Europe: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product & Fuel Type
France: Bus Supply & Demand
France: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product
Germany: Bus Supply & Demand
Germany: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product
United Kingdom: Bus Supply & Demand
United Kingdom: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product
Italy: Bus Supply & Demand
Italy: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product
Spain: Bus Supply & Demand
Spain: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product
Other Western Europe: Bus Supply & Demand
Other Western Europe: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product
SECTION VI -- ASIA/PACIFIC
Asia/Pacific: Bus Supply & Demand
Asia/Pacific: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product & Fuel Type
China: Bus Supply & Demand
China: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product
India: Bus Supply & Demand
India: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product
South Korea: Bus Supply & Demand
South Korea: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product
Japan: Bus Supply & Demand
Japan: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product
Indonesia: Bus Supply & Demand
Indonesia: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product
Thailand: Bus Supply & Demand
Thailand: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product
Other Asia/Pacific: Bus Supply & Demand
Other Asia/Pacific: Buses in Use & Bus Demand By Product
Other Asia/Pacific: Buses in Use & Bus Supply & Demand by Country
SECTION VII -- OTHER REGIONS
Central & South America: Bus Supply & Demand
Central & South America: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product & Fuel Type
Brazil: Bus Supply & Demand
Brazil: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product
Other Central & South America: Bus Supply & Demand
Other Central & South America: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product
Other Central & South America: Buses in Use & Bus Supply & Demand by Country
Eastern Europe: Bus Supply & Demand by Type
Eastern Europe: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product & Fuel Type
Russia: Bus Supply & Demand
Russia: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product
Other Eastern Europe: Bus Supply & Demand
Other Eastern Europe: Buses in Use & Demand by Bus Type
Africa/Mideast: Supply & Demand
Africa/Mideast: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product & Fuel Type
Turkey: Bus Supply & Demand
Turkey: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product
Saudi Arabia: Bus Supply & Demand
Saudi Arabia: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product
Other Africa/Mideast: Bus Supply & Demand
Other Africa/Mideast: Buses in Use & Bus Demand by Product
SECTION VIII -- INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
Bus Sales for Selected Manufacturers, 2013
Selected Cooperative Agreements
Selected Acquisitions & Divestitures
LIST OF CHARTS
SECTION II -- MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Average Annual Crude Oil Spot Prices, 2003-2013
Natural Gas Prices, 2003-2013
World Average Bus Prices, 2003-2023
SECTION III -- OVERVIEW
World Bus Demand by Region, 2013
World Buses in Use by Region, 2013
World Bus Production by Region, 2013
World Bus Demand by Product, 2013
Change in Bus Demand by Product, 2008-2013 & 2013-2018
World Bus Market Share by Fuel Type, 2003-2023
World Bus Rapid Transit System by Region, 2014
SECTION IV -- NORTH AMERICA
SECTION V -- WESTERN EUROPE
SECTION VI -- ASIA/PACIFIC
SECTION VIII -- INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
World Bus Market Share by Units, 2013
World Market Share by Type, 2013
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