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Domestic total output of alumina reached 8.51 million tons in 2005, while the demand was about 13 million, so 7.02 million tons were imported. Domestic output of alumina was 13.70 million tons in 2006. According to the expectation of Ministry of Commerce, the demand would be 18.15 million tons. Gap between supply and demand of 4.45 million tons and then 6.91 million tons of alumina was imported.
It's predicated that in 2007, China's alumina production capability will reach 26 million tons, up by 42% year on year; and the output will be about 20 million tons, increasing by 46% over the same period last year. By the year 2008, China's annual production capacity of alumina will approach 33 million tons; along with the release of alumina production capacity in 2007, the global alumina market will enter an overplus cycle. And the anaphase pressure in price reduction of alumina still exists. After 2010, the alumina market will be basically balanced between supply and demand instead of severely short supply.
The production capacity expansion caused by the high alumina price of the past years led to a long-term surplus supply in the world's alumina industry. High price of alumina in the past few years led to the expansion of production capability, resulting in a long-term surplus in global alumina market. We insist that influenced by the restriction from raw material supply and cost support, the global alumina price will keep low in 2007; while in the future, the alumina price will be around RMB 2400 Yuan per ton, which may differ from other consultancies. Meanwhile, the increased market fluctuation will urge China's alumina enterprises to merge and reorganize. The industry concentration degree will be further improved. And the merger and reorganization centralizing in China's alumina industry will become the focus in improving the concentration degree of China's electrolysis aluminum industry.
Forecast on China's Alumina Output and Growth Rate, 2001-2010
China's Alumina Output and Demand, 2001-2010 (million tons)
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Domestic total output of alumina reached 8.51 million tons in 2005, while the demand was about 13 million, so 7.02 million tons were imported. Domestic output of alumina was 13.70 million tons in 2006. According to the expectation of Ministry of Commerce, the demand would be 18.15 million tons. Gap between supply and demand of 4.45 million tons and then 6.91 million tons of alumina was imported.
It's predicated that in 2007, China's alumina production capability will reach 26 million tons, up by 42% year on year; and the output will be about 20 million tons, increasing by 46% over the same period last year. By the year 2008, China's annual production capacity of alumina will approach 33 million tons; along with the release of alumina production capacity in 2007, the global alumina market will enter an overplus cycle. And the anaphase pressure in price reduction of alumina still exists. After 2010, the alumina market will be basically balanced between supply and demand instead of severely short supply.
The production capacity expansion caused by the high alumina price of the past years led to a long-term surplus supply in the world's alumina industry. High price of alumina in the past few years led to the expansion of production capability, resulting in a long-term surplus in global alumina market. We insist that influenced by the restriction from raw material supply and cost support, the global alumina price will keep low in 2007; while in the future, the alumina price will be around RMB 2400 Yuan per ton, which may differ from other consultancies. Meanwhile, the increased market fluctuation will urge China's alumina enterprises to merge and reorganize. The industry concentration degree will be further improved. And the merger and reorganization centralizing in China's alumina industry will become the focus in improving the concentration degree of China's electrolysis aluminum industry.
Forecast on China's Alumina Output and Growth Rate, 2001-2010
China's Alumina Output and Demand, 2001-2010 (million tons)
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2005-2006 www.researchinchina.com All Rights Reserved |
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1. Overview on the development of alumina industry 1.1 Basic character 1.1.1 Economy features of the industry 1.1.2 Industry chain 1.2 Maturity degree 1.2.1 Development cycle of the industry 1.2.2 Maturity degree of domestic and foreign markets 1.2.3 Maturity degree of the industry 2. Development environment of China's alumina industry 2.1 Resource environment 2.1.1 Resource nature and geological exploration of China's bauxite ore 2.1.2 Exploitation and utilization of China's bauxite ore 2.1.3 Development of China's coal industry 2.2 Economic environment 2.2.1 Macro economy of China in recent years 2.2.2 Structure of fixed assets investment by industry, 2003-2007 2.2.3 Economy development of major regions of China 2.3 Policies and code environment 2.3.1 Macro control policy in recent years and its influence on alumina industry 2.3.2 Overview on paid acquisition system of mining rights 2.3.3 Revenue policy of alumina import and export 2.3.4 Special Plan for Aluminum Industry Development and Development Policy on Aluminum Industry 2.4 Technical environment 2.4.1 Main R & D force of China's alumina technology 2.4.2 Investment in R & D 2.4.3 Talent cultivation 2.4.4 Technical progress of China in recent years 3. Retrospect on the operation of alumina industry, 2001-2006 3.1 Output, supply and sale 3.1.1 Alumina output, 2001-2006 3.1.2 Demand of alumina industry 3.1.3 Variation in sale/production ratio of aluminum industry 3.1.4 Variation in inventory 3.2 Import and export of alumina industry 3.2.1 Import and export volume, 2001-2006 3.2.2 Import and export price, 2001-2006 3.2.3 Analysis on alumina import and export by country or region, 2001-2006 3.2.4 Major import and export enterprises 3.3 Financial status of alumina industry 3.3.1 Accomplishment of major economy indicators 3.3.2 Profit-making ability 3.3.3 Operation efficiency 3.3.4 Repayable ability 3.3.5 Growth ability 4. Status quo of competition 4.1 Porter 5 Forces Analysis 4.1.1 Current inter-enterprise competition 4.1.2 Potential entrants 4.1.3 Threat from substitute 4.1.4 Bargaining ability of providers 4.1.5 Bargaining ability of clients 4.2 Concentration degree of aluminum industry 4.2.1 Market concentration degree 4.2.2 Brand concentration degree 4.2.3 Regional concentration degree 4.3 International competence of the industry 4.3.1 Production elements 4.3.2 Demand condition 4.3.3 Supporting and related industries 4.3.4 Enterprise strategy, structure and competition 4.3.5 Role of the government 5. Comparison in industry development by region 5.1 North China 5.1.1 Development status quo 5.1.2 Competition advantage 5.1.3 Prospect 5.2 East China 5.2.1 Development status quo 5.2.2 Competition advantage 5.2.3 Prospect 5.3 South China 5.3.1 Development status quo 5.3.2 Competition advantage 5.3.3 Prospect 5.4 Southwest China 5.4.1 Development status quo 5.4.2 Competition advantage 5.4.3 Prospect 5.5 Northwest China 5.5.1 Development status quo 5.5.2 Competition advantage 5.5.3 Prospect 6. Prospect of alumina and related industries, 2007-2010 6.1 Prospect of alumina industry 6.1.1 Macro economy 6.1.2 Trend and influence of policies 6.1.3 International industry trend 6.2 Prospect of alumina-related industries 6.2.1 Prospect of bauxite ore mining industry 6.2.2 Prospect of caustic soda industry 6.2.3 Prospect of energy (coal) industry 6.2.4 Prospect of electrolysis aluminum industry 6.2.5 Prospect of aluminum product industry 6.3 Development trend of alumina industry 6.3.1 Technical trend 6.3.2 Competition pattern of the industry 6.3.3 Internationalization trend 6.3.4 Problems and countermeasures 7. Forecast on the market, 2007-2010 7.2 Estimated demand of alumina, 2007-2010 7.1.1 Demand scale of electrolysis aluminum, 2007-2010 7.1.2 Estimated demand for alumina, 2007-2010 7.2 Estimated production of alumina industry, 2007-2010 7.2.1 Investment in fixed assets in recent years 7.2.2 Current under-construction and planned projects 7.2.3 Investment value and investment appeal of the industry 7.2.4 Estimated alumina output, 2007-2010 7.3 Estimated import and export statistics of alumina, 2007-2010 7.3.1 Import 2007-2010 7.3.2 Export 2007-2010 7.4 Price trend of alumina, 2007-2010 7.4.1 Price trend and reason in recent years 7.4.2 Current market price 7.4.3 Estimated price trend of alumina, 2007-2010 8. Major enterprises in alumina industry 8.1 Aluminum Corporation of China Limited 8.1.1 Company profile 8.1.2 Operating and financial status 8.1.3 Strength and development strategy 8.2 Chiping Xinfa Huayu Alumina Co., Ltd. 8.2.1 Company profile 8.2.2 Operating and financial status 8.2.3 Strength and development strategy 8.3 Shandong Weiqiao Aluminum-Electricity Co., Ltd. 8.3.1 Company profile 8.3.2 Operating and financial status 8.3.3 Strength and development strategy 8.4 Shanxi Luneng Jinbei Aluminum Co., Ltd. 8.4.1 Company profile 8.4.2 Operating and financial status 8.4.3 Strength and development strategy 8.5 Coalmine Aluminum (Sanmenxia) Co., Ltd. 8.5.1 Company profile 8.5.2 Operating and financial status 8.5.3 Strength and development strategy 8.6 East Hope Group 8.6.1 Company profile 8.6.2 Operating and financial status 8.6.3 Strength and development strategy 8.7 Louyang Heung kong Wanji Aluminum Co., Ltd. 8.7.1 Overview 8.7.2 Operating and financial status 8.7.3 Strength and development strategy 8.8 Yixiang Aluminium Industrial Co., Ltd. 8.8.1 Overview 8.8.2 Operating and financial status 8.8.3 Strength and development strategy 8.9 Chongqing Dingtai Tuoyuan Alumina Development Co., Ltd. 8.9.1 Company profile 8.9.2 Operating and financial status 8.9.3 Strength and development strategy 8.10 Henan Huiyuan Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. 8.10.1 Company profile 8.10.2 Operating and financial status 8.10.3 Strength and development strategy 8.11 Chongqing Nanchuan Xianfeng Alumina Co., Ltd. (Bosai Minerals Group) 8.11.1 Company profile 8.11.2 Operating and financial status 8.11.3 Strength and development strategy 8.12 Shanxi Xiaoyi Tianyuan Aluminum Group 8.12.1 Company profile 8.12.2 Operating and financial status 8.12.3 Strength and development strategy 8.13 Shandong Longkou Nanshan Group 8.13.1 Company profile 8.13.2 Operating and financial status 8.13.3 Strength and development strategy 8.14 Guangxi Huayin Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. 8.14.1 Company profile 8.14.2 Operating and financial status 8.14.3 Strength and development strategy 8.15 Shandong Lubei Chemistry 8.15.1 Company profile 8.15.2 Operating and financial status 8.15.3 Strength and development strategy 9. Investment opportunities and risk of alumina industry 9.1 Investment opportunities 9.1.1 Price trend of bauxite, 2007-2010 9.1.2 China's coal supply & demand and price trend, 2008-2010 9.1.3 Consumption market of domestic and foreign aluminum and related products 9.1.4 Forecast on competition performance of alumina industry, 2007-2010 9.1.5 Overview on investment opportunities of alumina industry 9.2 Investment risk of alumina industry 9.2.1 Risk in fluctuation of raw material price 9.2.2 Market risk 9.2.3 Policy risk 9.2.4 Operation risk
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Quarterly alumina output of China Global alumina enterprises and output, 2006-2007(E) Regional distribution of China's bauxite resources Grade of China's reserved bauxite Global aluminum output, 2003-Q1 2007 Trend of global aluminum output, 2003-Q1 2007 China's alumina output, 2007 China's accumulated alumina output, Jan-May 2007 Monthly average import price of alumina, 2006 Volume of China's imported alumina from four major original countries, 2006 Main economy indicators and growth rate of aluminum smelting industry, 2006 Major indicators in profit-making ability of aluminum smelting industry, 2006 Major indicators in operation efficiency of aluminum smelting industry, 2006 Growth rate of total assets of aluminum smelting industry, Jan-Dec 2006 Average growth rate of net fixed assets of aluminum smelting industry, Jan-Dec 2006 Growth rate in profit of aluminum smelting industry, Feb-Dec 2006 Growth rate in product sales income of China's aluminum smelting industry, Feb-Dec 2006 China's regional alumina production capacity Alumina output and growth rate of Aluminum Corporation of China Limited, 2001-2006 China's alumina import, 2001-2006 China's alumina output, 2005-2006 Alumina output of Shanxi Province Major indicators of aluminum smelting enterprises in North China, 2006 Enterprise amount and loss-making enterprise number in aluminum smelting industry in North China Alumina output of Shandong and Jiangsu Major indicators of aluminum smelting enterprises in East China, 2006 Enterprise amount and loss-making enterprise number in aluminum smelting industry in East China Alumina output of Guangxi, Henan and Hunan Enterprise amount in aluminum smelting industry in Central South China Enterprise amount and loss-making enterprise number in aluminum smelting industry in Central South China Alumina output of Guizhou and Chongqing Major indicators of aluminum smelting enterprises in Southwest China, 2006 Enterprise amount in aluminum smelting industry in Northwest China, 2006 Major indicators of aluminum smelting enterprises in Northwest China, 2006 Trend in China's apparent consumption of electrolysis aluminum in recent years China's demand for electrolysis aluminum, 2001-2010 China's demand for alumina used in electrolysis aluminum production, 2010 Output and estimated growth rate of China's electrolysis aluminum, 2001-2010 Domestic alumina output, Q1 2007 Alumina output/ demand balance of China, 2001-2010 Alumina output and growth rate of China, 2001-2010(E) Consumption structure of crude aluminum by industry Spot price of alumina in China Total assets and total debts of Aluminum Corporation of China Limited Sales income and YoY growth rate of Shandong Weiqiao Aluminum-Electricity Co., Ltd., 2004-2006 Accumulated financial statistics of Shandong Luneng Jinbei Aluminum Co., Ltd., 2006 Accumulated financial statistics of Coalmine Aluminum (Sanmenxia) Co., Ltd., 2006 Accumulated financial statistics of East Hope Group, 2006 Accumulated financial statistics of Chongqing Dingtai Tuoyuan Alumina Development Co., Ltd., 2006 Total debts of Henan Huiyuan Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. Profit-making ability of Henan Huiyuan Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. Debts of Shandong Longkou Nanshan Group, 2006 Profit-making ability of Shandong Longkou Nanshan Group, 2006 Main financial indicators of Shandong Lubei Enterprise Group General Company, 2004-2006 Bauxite output and import of China Country/ region of origin of China’s bauxite Bauxite price in China Output and demand of virgin aluminum in China Consumption in downstream industries in China, 2005 Consumption in downstream industries in China, 2006 Aluminum output, import and export of China Production capability of hot strip tandem rolling Consumption structure of aluminum foil in China Imports and exports of major aluminum varieties Jan-Oct 2006 Major economic indicators of China aluminum smelting industry, 2006 Trend in output growth of China electrolysis aluminum industry, 2001-2006 Distribution of China alumina output, 1998 Distribution of China alumina output, 2006 Production capability and growth of alumina in China, 2001-2006
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