DESCRIPTION
For 20 years we have surveyed the whole electric vehicle scene land, water and air, hybrid and pure electric. The next 20 years will make all that seem just a taster. Industries will collapse but certain countries, companies and users will prosper. The unique IDTechEx overview report, "Electric Vehicles 2018-2038: Forecasts, Analysis and Opportunities" explains all this including the barely-noticed new end game of energy independent electric vehicles EIV. Nowadays, there are EIVs announced all the time and they will become more important than the much-discussed autonomy of navigation that many of them will employ.
We show how fuel cell and non-plug-in vehicles will be sidelined as we approach peak internal combustion engine, peak car and even peak plug-in pure electric vehicle in the next two decades. We show that if, as is likely, the new 48V mild hybrids forecasted acquire EV modes of operation within ten years, the total EV market will approach one trillion dollars. We spell out how EVs leveraging navigational autonomy and/or energy independence will hugely assist the young, the old and emerging nations in particular. EIVs lead us to totally different key enabling technologies and different winners and losers. Learn how EIV hardware will be a bigger business than autonomy hardware and identify gaps in the market.
Packed with over 390 slides of detailed, easily understood new infographics, it has facts-based new forecasts uniquely in 46 categories and twenty year technological roadmaps. No more confusing of e-tuktuks with regular cars or indoor with outdoor forklifts. No more ignoring of the new sectors such as electric motorcycles and micro EVs.
The number and value ten year forecasts and twenty year technology roadmaps are the result of intense travel, global interviews, conference attendance and informed calculation by PhD level analysts with appropriate experience. For example, in 2017 alone, we have interviewed many staff at EV leader Toyota during our presentations to them in Japan and the USA and when speaking alongside them in conferences across the globe including our own. We never stop: the report is constantly updated with significant news and insights. For example, the little-discussed 48V mild hybrids appeared for the first time in volume in 2017 but rapidly exceed the volume sales of the much-discussed strong hybrid and pure electric vehicles combined over many future years until we track pure electric versions dominating.
In this industry nothing is quite as it seems. Car sales will peak within 15 years for many reasons that are detailed and we identify peak internal combustion engine too but most Industrial and Commercial vehicles will see no easing of growth rate for reasons given in the report: they will power past 65% of the market - more than double that of cars.
We reveal how attention is turning away from the declining share of cost and function represented by batteries to the increasing share from power electronics adding many new power technologies. However, a major focus of this unique overview report is the vehicles themselves from personal manned multicopters to e-buses straddling traffic - showing the gaps in the market. This report prioritises commercial success factors and it provides detailed statistics to support informed action plans. Unlike some, IDTechEx is not uniformly enthusiastic about everything. Indeed certain technologies will to be squeezed out to become merely niche activities and IDTechEx looks at where, when and why.
There is a detailed Executive Summary and Conclusions, Introduction and chapters on Industrial and Commercial, Cars and other applicational sectors identifying key players. There is a league table of the top 13 manufacturers of hybrid and pure electric EVs land, water and air with many famous names absent and little known names in there including seven companies not in the top 13 three years ago. Lessons are drawn.
The key enabling technologies for the future, covered in later chapters, are changing radically with multiple reversing motor generators and multiple energy harvesting including multiple electrical recuperation among those coming to the fore. This report takes a fresh, unbiased look at all the vehicle categories and technology options, most of which are subject to disruptive change. For those wanting to drill down into specific aspects the many new IDTechEx reports that do just that are referenced.
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Table of Contents
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1.1. Definitions
1.2. EVs will change the world
1.3. Megatrends affected by and affecting EV markets
1.4. Why EVs are chosen
1.4.1. Examples of market pull
1.4.2. Examples of market push:
1.4.3. Some reasons for buying electric vehicles by type
1.5. The size of the business opportunity is larger than realised
1.6. No steady progress to fewer components
1.7. Good and bad strategies
1.8. The end game is not as popularly portrayed
1.9. Electric vehicle powertrain evolution: typical figures expected for cars
1.10. Mayhem in the car market: number K
1.11. Progression of vehicle powertrain electrification
1.11.1. The future is electrification
1.11.2. From range anxiety to range superiority
1.11.3. Key enabling technologies by powertrain
1.11.4. Relative importance of powertrain and autonomy hardware markets 2018-2038
1.12. Cheaper to buy is the killer blow
1.13. Very different cost structures across the world: watch buses and cars
1.14. Evolution of battery energy density and cost
1.15. Market forecasts in 46 categories
1.15.1. The 46 categories characterised
1.15.2. Global forecasts by number 2018-2028
1.15.3. Global forecasts by ex-factory unit value 2018-2028
1.15.4. Global forecasts by total market value 2018-2028
1.15.5. Top five EV value markets 2018
1.15.6. Top five EV value markets 2028
1.15.7. Cars 2014-6 by powertrain and region Number K
1.16. League table of EV manufacturers 2017 $ billion
1.17. EV manufacturer numbers by sector showing where most are profitable
1.18. Milestone in 2017
1.19. Learnings from Electric & Hybrid Conference Germany April 2017 and others in 2017
1.19.1. Market drivers - PSA, AVL and Morgan Stanley view
1.19.2. Investment rises but car sales peak
1.19.3. Cost competitive
1.19.4. Pollution challenge
1.19.5. Session description
1.19.6. Fuel cells downplayed
1.19.7. Electrification of Daimler and PSA powertrains
1.19.8. Pure electric leveraging autonomy
1.19.9. Inductive charging and HEV gets squeezed
1.19.10. 48V Mild hybrids
1.19.11. Optimisation of 48V ICE
1.19.12. Rationale for two motor generators
1.19.13. Traction motors - In wheel traction motor rationale
1.20. The leaders in pure electric cars in 2017
1.21. World's first autonomous and zero emissions ship
1.22. Unintended consequences advance electric car take-off
1.23. Fuel cell vehicles enter serious production
1.24. Electric car breakeven in context in 2017-8
1.24.1. The saga of the future of automobile industry
1.24.2. Peak in overall car sales then peak in electric car sales k globally - goodbye to many things
1.24.3. Electric vehicle powertrain evolution: typical figures expected for cars
1.24.4. Key enabling technologies by powertrain
2. INTRODUCTION
2.1. What, where?
2.1.1. What are they
2.1.2. What is the biggest applicational sector?
2.1.3. What is the end game?
2.1.4. Jargon buster
2.2. How are they made?
2.2.1. Key enabling technologies are changing
2.2.2. Energy harvesting and regeneration becomes important
2.2.3. Examples of powerful sources of on-board electricity for EVs, actual and potential
2.2.4. Voltages
2.3. Lessons past, present and future
2.4. On-road Plug-in EV sales to 2015
2.5. The largest value market for e-cars
2.6. The China phenomenon
2.6.1. Largest car, bus and e-bus market 2017
2.6.2. Market drivers in China
2.6.3. Targets, influences, new value chain in China
2.7. EV end game: Energy Independent Vehicles EIV
2.7.1. Round the world on sunshine
2.7.2. Key EIV technologies
2.8. Huge impact of autonomous car as bus is calculated in 2017
2.9. Profile: Cummins
2.10. Cummins view in 2017 of the future of off-road electric vehicle drivelines
2.11. Electric Vehicle News from "IDTechEx Show!" Berlin May 2017
2.11.1. Interview Mitsubishi Motors May 2017
2.12. China weeds out small EV companies, pushes big ones harder
3. INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL EVS
3.1. Introduction
3.2. Market dynamics
3.2.1. Buses biggest sub-sector
3.2.2. Material handling/ intralogistics next biggest sub-sector for now
3.2.3. Innovation usually before cars because up-front cost not as critical
3.3. Buses trends
3.3.1. Powertrain evolution
3.3.2. Small buses and delivery trucks
3.4. Rocketing sales of plug-in buses in China (PEV+PHEV)
3.5. Progress of Yutong, global market leader and its opinion
3.6. Small commercial and industrial vehicles innovate
3.6.1. IFEVS EIV pizza van self-powers travel, oven, lighting
3.7. Trucks and school buses
3.8. Energy Independent Industrial and Commercial vehicles
3.8.1. Lizard tourist bus
3.8.2. Solar Ship EIV helium inflatable fixed wing aircraft Canada autonomous, sun alone
3.9. League tables of manufacturers
3.9.1. Industrial forklift league table with acquisitions
3.9.2. Chinese bus sales league table
4. ELECTRIC CARS
4.1. Car demand: 15 year view
4.2. Chinese car manufacturers coming up fast
4.3. Examples of policy support mechanisms for plug-in electric cars 2015
4.4. Autonomous cars are best when they are electric
4.4.1. Demand for autonomous cars
4.5. The attack on the car
4.6. Market figures 2015-6 Cars will remain a huge business for decades and new opportunities will arise from the ashes
5. MICRO EVS, E-BIKES, E-SCOOTERS, E-MOTORBIKES, MOBILITY FOR DISABLED
5.1. Commonality and classification
5.2. Parameters by category
5.3. Many types of micro EV and two wheeler
5.4. Terra Motors: superb market knowledge and unique approach
5.5. Many other examples, recent news
5.6. Toyota MicroEV: targetting 300K in Europe for postal deliveries
5.7. Mobility for the disabled
5.7.1. Overview
5.7.2. The demographic time-bomb
5.7.3. Sub types and latest innovations
5.8. These types as Energy Independent Vehicles EIV: microbus, power chair, delivery e-bike, agrobot, microcar
6. MARINE EVS
6.1. Overview
6.2. Marine EV categories
6.3. Favoured trends for marine EV technologies
6.4. Other benefits of marine EVs
6.5. Examples of marine EV making new things possible
6.6. Large emission from marine vessels
6.7. Government regulations for the marine industry
6.8. Key drivers for electrification of marine vessels
6.9. Electrification in action - Fuel Cell Propulsion
6.10. Conclusions and outlook
7. 7. MANNED ELECTRIC AIRCRAFT
7.1. Why go electric for manned aircraft?
7.2. How to transition to electric aircraft: MEA, hybrid, pure electric
7.3. MEA issues and opportunities
7.4. Where electric aircraft are headed: range anxiety to range superiority
7.5. Manned aircraft lagged land-based electric vehicles
7.5.1. Great achievements
7.5.2. Little business
7.5.3. Hybrids should have been first
7.5.4. Hybrids: running before you can walk
7.6. Trend to larger electric aircraft
7.6.1. Overview of major issues
7.6.2. Viability of pure electric larger aircraft: timeline
7.7. Electrification of aircraft in general: rapid progress
7.8. Electric aircraft already commercialised
7.8.1. Examples
7.8.2. Viability of electric primary trainers already
7.9. Routes to further commercialisation of electric aircraft
7.10. Pure electric manned aircraft arriving
7.11. Hybrid electric aircraft arriving
7.11.1. HYPSTAIR powertrain for general aviation
7.11.2. Hybrid electric helicopters, mullticopters
7.11.3. Airbus eThrust concept with DEP
7.11.4. NASA Sceptor concept with DEP
7.12. Flying cars: needed or possible?
7.12.1. Flying cars using airports
7.12.2. Only single seat is viable?
7.12.3. Combatting urban gridlock: better alternatives
7.12.4. Hybrid VTOL flying car feasibility
7.13. Choice of powertrains is influenced by many factors
7.14. New end game: Energy Independent Vehicles EIV
7.15. Key enabling technologies in future: examples
7.15.1. Energy harvesting including regeneration
7.15.2. Structural electronics tears up the rule book
7.15.3. Power electronics and other key enablers
7.16. Less mechanics: more electronics
7.17. Becoming one business land, water, air - hybrid and pure electric
7.18. Regulations have impeded small e-aircraft in the USA
7.19. Ambition and freedom in Europe
7.20. Progress in East Asia
7.20.1. China
7.20.2. Japan
7.21. Market forecasts
7.21.1. Timelines 2016-2031: IDTechEx, Airbus, Rolls Royce, others
7.21.2. Rolls Royce timeline
7.21.3. MEA target and roadmaps converge to EV for 2035
8. ELECTRIC DRONES: UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLES (UAVS)
8.1. Definition
8.2. Types of drone - toy/ personal electric
8.3. Types of drone - other small electric
8.4. Benefits and issues
8.5. How does it impact society?
8.6. Civil drone applications
8.7. Most successful pure electric UAV
8.8. All parts subject to disruptive change
9. SOME OF THE KEY ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES
9.1. The key enabling technologies are changing
9.2. New electric powertrains will often be more complex
9.3. Energy storage
9.3.1. Rapid change
9.3.2. Rated power vs energy stored by technology
9.3.3. The role of energy storage technologies in electric vehicles
9.3.4. EV battery impact
9.3.5. EV lithium battery pack price to 2030
9.3.6. Lithium-ion traction battery chemistry preferences
9.3.7. New Li technology maturity per market segment
9.4. Forecasts of energy density by type 2016 - 2028
9.5. Rapid scale-up with rapid change of product spells trouble
9.6. Safety Warning
9.7. Fuel cells
9.7.1. Basics
9.7.2. Credibility
9.7.3. Where is fuel cell success?
9.7.4. The keenest countries
9.7.5. Challenges and future
9.8. Rotating Electrical Machines and their controls
9.8.1. Jargon buster
9.8.2. Great improvements in traction motors with their controls are both needed and possible
9.8.3. REM technologies performance in powertrains: the show so far
9.8.4. Toyota: Big Gains from Downsizing PM Motor for 2016-7 models
9.8.5. One business land, water, air - hybrid and pure electric
9.8.6. Move to more than one REM per EV
9.8.7. Move to integration - Volkswagen approach to device integration
9.8.8. Effect of move to plug-in EVs
9.8.9. Race for lightweight electric aircraft motors
9.8.10. Technology choices
9.9. Energy harvesting including regeneration
9.9.1. Harvesting for on-road vehicles
9.9.2. Harvesting for marine vehicles
9.9.3. Harvesting for air vehicles
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