2015-2025年工业及商用混动&纯电动汽车市场研究报告 （英文）
工业及商用混动&纯电动，Hybrid， Pure Electric Vehicles
http://www.bimarket.cn/Report/ReportInfo.aspx?Id=2
2015/10/14 13:37:38
报告链接：http://www.bimarket.cn/Report/ReportInfo.aspx?Id=24633
Those selling components for electric vehicles and those wishing to make the vehicles themselves must seek where the majority of the money is spent and will be spent. That must lead them to industrial and commercial electric vehicles because today these represent 60% of the value of the electric vehicle market. Indeed, this sector is set to grow 4.2 times in the next decade. Industrial and commercial electric vehicles include heavy industrial vehicles, the term referring to heavy lifting, as with forklifts.
Then we have buses, trucks, taxis and the other light industrial and commercial vehicles. There are also a few work boats and commercial boats and one day there will be commercial electric aircraft but this is really a story about the burgeoning demand for off-road industrial vehicles and on-road commercial vehicles. In particular, industrial electric vehicles make industry more efficient and commercial electric vehicles reduce congestion. Both of them greatly reduce pollution and align closely with government objectives concerning industry and the environment, yet they minimally depend on subsidy, in contrast with some other electric vehicle types.
This report covers the technical and market trends for industrial and commercial vehicles whether hybrid or pure electric, putting it in the context of electric vehicles overall and including the activities of a host of manufacturers of the vehicles and their components and even providing future technological development roadmaps.
The market for electric industrial vehicles is already large because, by law, forklifts have to be electric when used indoors. Little growth remains in this market but outdoors almost all earthmoving and lifting vehicles use the conventional internal combustion engine. That is about to change dramatically because hybrid electric versions reduce cost of ownership and exposure to price hikes with fossil fuels. Hybrids increasingly perform better as well, with more power from stationary, ability to supply electricity to other equipment and other benefits including less noise and pollution. On the other hand, airports, often government owned or funded, are under great pressure to finish converting their Ground Support Equipment GSE to pure electric versions both on and off the tarmac partly using federal grants.
Yet another industrial trend is for use of electric vehicles to replace slow and often dangerous manual procedures. Sometimes a self-powered indoor crane replaces scaffolding. An electric stair climber replaces human effort and possible injury. On the other hand, sit-on floor cleaners in buildings, sit-on ice cleaners in ice rinks, outrider vehicles carried on trash collection trucks and a host of similar solutions speed processes and reduce injuries and costs.
Buses, trucks, taxis and the other light industrial and commercial vehicles are going electric for similar reasons but we must add the desire of national and local governments, who buy many of them, to go green, even where there is no payback. However, the size and growth of the industrial and commercial sector is less dependent on government funding and tax breaks than the more fragile market for electric cars, particularly pure electric ones. Excitingly, most of the electric vehicle technologies are changing and improving hugely and innovation often comes here before it is seen in the more publicised electric vehicle sectors such as cars.
Asynchronous traction motors were first widely used on forklifts: their benefits of longer life, less maintenance, low cost and freedom from magnet price hikes and heating problems are only later being seen in a few cars. Ultracapacitors otherwise known as supercapacitors permit very fast charging of buses whether by the new Level 3 charging stations or regenerative braking and they release huge surges of power when the bus is full and starting on a hill. Gas turbine range extenders have been on some buses for 12 years but they are only now being planned for cars. Fuel cells will be viable in fleets where the expensive hydrogen distribution is manageable - not for cars across the world. Energy harvesting shock absorbers about to hit the market will be very viable on buses and trucks where they can put up to 12 kW into the battery whereas such devices on cars will take longer to prove.
Nevertheless, it is important to look at industrial and commercial electric vehicles as part of all electric vehicles out there - as we do - because it is increasingly true that one company will produce EVs for many end uses and even make key components. This achieves the product reliability and cost advantages that come from highest volume manufacture based on standardisation and shared research.
Main areas the report covers
The report provides forecasts of the heavy industrial, light industrial & commercial, bus and taxi global markets by numbers, ex-factory price and total market value for the coming decade. In addition to chapters on these sectors, there are chapters on the market drivers, the key technologies and their future trends all pulled together with summary charts, graphs and profiles of latest company activity.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Table of Contents
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
2. INTRODUCTION
2.1. Urban logistics trends
2.2. Technology disagreement
2.3. The special case of China
2.3.1. Pollution control is urgent
2.3.2. Particulate matter - China the worst
2.3.3. Inadequate roads and parking
2.3.4. Example of action BYD
2.4. Biggest EV?
2.5. Different strategies
3. MARKET DRIVERS FOR INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL EVS
4. HEAVY INDUSTRIAL EVS
5. LIGHT INDUSTRIAL & COMMERCIAL EVS
5.1. Introduction
5.2. Sub categories
5.3. Local services
5.4. Airport EVs
5.4.1. USA statistics
5.4.2. GSE by airline and airport
5.4.3. Here come hybrids
5.4.4. US incentives
5.4.5. Overall market
5.4.6. Airport applications widen
5.4.7. Sea-Tac Airport 2014
5.5. Small people-movers
5.6. Chrysler minivan in 2015
5.7. Dong Feng China big minivan order
5.8. Light industrial
5.9. Listing of manufacturers
6. BUSES AND TRUCKS
6.1. Increasing variety of bus technologies
6.2. Pure electric buses
6.3. MAN hybrid bus Germany: supercapacitor not battery
6.4. BYD China
6.5. OLEV technology for Korean buses
6.6. ABB intermittent overhead charging
6.7. Trucks
6.7.1. General
6.7.2. Medium and heavy duty trucks
6.7.3. Travel through Munich in a vehicle that is 100% electric, clean, quiet
7. TAXIS
7.1. Electric taxi projects in China, Europe, Mexico, UK, UK, Japan
7.2. Huge order from the Philippines?
8. ELECTRIC VEHICLES FOR CONSTRUCTION, AGRICULTURE AND MINING
8.1. Overview
8.2. Value proposition and environmental restrictions
8.3. Autonomous vehicles for agriculture and mining
8.4. Energy and work synchronization in mining
8.5. Light manned vehicles - PapaBravo Canada
8.6. Examples of cranes and lifters
8.7. Caterpillar and Komatsu: energy harvesting on large hybrid vehicles
9. KEY COMPONENTS FOR INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL ELECTRIC VEHICLES
9.1. Types of electric vehicle
9.2. Many fuels
9.3. Born electric
9.4. Pure electric vehicles are improving
9.5. Series vs parallel hybrid
9.6. Modes of operation of hybrids
9.7. Microhybrid is a misnomer
9.8. Deep hybridisation
9.9. Hybrid vehicle price premium
9.10. Battery cost and performance are key
9.11. Tradeoff of energy storage technologies
9.12. Ultracapacitors = supercapacitors
9.12.1. Where supercapacitors fit in
9.12.2. Advantages and disadvantages
9.12.3. Can supercapacitors replace batteries?
9.12.4. Supercapacitors - a work round for troublesome batteries
9.12.5. Supercabatteries: lithium-ion capacitors
9.13. Range extenders
9.13.1. What will be required of a range extender?
9.13.2. Three generations of range extender
9.13.3. Fuel cell range extenders
9.14. Big effect of many modest electricity sources combined
9.15. Energy harvesting
9.16. Trend to high voltage
9.17. Structural components
9.18. Trend to distributed components
9.19. Trend to flatness then smart skin
9.20. Traction batteries
9.20.1. After the shakeout in car traction batteries
9.20.2. The needs have radically changed
9.20.3. It started with cobalt
9.20.4. Great variety of recipes
9.20.5. Other factors
9.20.6. Check with reality
9.20.7. Lithium winners today and soon
9.20.8. Reasons for winning
9.20.9. Lithium polymer electrolyte now important
9.20.10. Winning chemistry
9.20.11. Titanate establishes a place
9.20.12. Laminar structure
9.20.13. Niche winners
9.20.14. Fluid situation
9.21. Traction motors
9.21.1. Definition and background
9.21.2. Traction motor trends
9.21.3. Shape of motors
9.21.4. Born electric - in-wheel electric wheels
9.21.5. Examples of motors in action
9.22. Power electronics
10. INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL COMPANY PROFILES
10.1. Ayton Willow
10.2. Bradshaw Electric
10.3. Caproni JSC
10.4. Crown Equipment Corporation
10.5. Hyster-Yale
10.6. John Deere
10.7. Jungheinrich AG
10.8. Kion Group GmbH
10.9. Liberty Electric Cars
10.10. MAN Truck & Bus AG
10.11. Toyota Motor
10.12. Valence Technologies
10.13. VISEDO Oy
10.14. ZNTK Radom
IDTECHEX RESEARCH REPORTS AND CONSULTANCY
TABLES
1.1. Numbers of industrial & commercial EVs, in thousands, sold globally, 2015-2025. Mainly hybrid in red. Minority hybrid in green.
1.2. Unit prices, ex factory, of industrial & commercial EVs, in US$ thousands, globally, 2015-2025
1.3. Market value of industrial & commercial EVs, in US$ billions, sold globally, 2015-2025
2.1. Examples of very different bus and freight solutions for essentially the same types of vehicle and some of the relative benefits and challenges. Commonalities highlighted in color.
3.1. Some reasons why ICE vehicles are replaced with EVs
3.2. Advantages of pure electric commercial vehicles, enjoyed to some extent by hybrid electric versions
3.3. Potential challenges of electric commercial vehicles
4.1. 27 examples of manufacturers of heavy industrial EVs by country
5.1. 150 manufacturers of light industrial and commercial EVs and drive trains by country and examples of their products
6.1. Bus powertrain and energy storage technologies by capacity and range to refuel/ recharge, examples only.
6.2. 78 examples of manufacturers of hybrid electric buses or their power trains (the main added value), with country of headquarters and image
6.3. 36 Manufacturers of pure electric buses, country of headquarters and image
6.4. TOSA bus specification
6.5. TOSA charging infrastructure specification
7.1. 19 projects testing pure electric taxis
9.1. Three generations of range extender with examples of construction, manufacturer and power output
9.2. Traction battery technologies in 2012, number percentage lead acid, NiMH and lithium
9.3. Traction battery technologies in 2022 number percentage lead acid, NiMH and lithium
9.4. Traction battery technology by applicational sector 2010 and 2020, examples of suppliers and trends
9.5. What is on the way in or out with traction batteries
9.6. 71 vertically integrated lithium traction battery cell manufacturers, their chemistry, cell geometry and customer relationships (not necessarily orders)
9.7. Summary of preferences of traction motor technology for vehicles
9.8. Advantages vs disadvantages of brushed vs brushless vehicle traction motors for today's vehicles
9.9. 68 industrial and commercial electric vehicles and their motor details.
9.10. Examples of electronics and electrics replacing mechanical parts in electric vehicles.
9.11. Examples of cost reduction of electrics/ electronics by radical alternatives.
FIGURES
1.1. Numbers of industrial & commercial EVs, in thousands, sold globally, 2015-2025
1.2. Unit prices, ex factory, of industrial & commercial EVs, in US$ thousands, globally, 2015-2025
1.3. Market value of industrial & commercial EVs, in US$ billions, sold globally, 2015-2025
2.1. Trend of freight transport urban vs long haulage 2010-2025
2.2. Transport of people 2010-2025
2.3. LCV and urban bus usage hours
2.4. China carbon dioxide emissions vs rest of world
2.5. Green vehicles in China 2015-2020
2.6. Sales of BYD electric buses in China 2015
2.7. BYD deployment of electric taxis
2.8. BYD QIN hybrid car
2.9. Strategy of Iveco Italy in late 2014
3.1. Efficiency in power needed per person per distance for different forms of on-road passenger transport
3.2. Bus size vs fuel consumption
4.1. Caterpillar CAT series hybrid diesel electric bulldozer
4.2. Mitsubishi diesel electric hybrid lifter
4.3. Toyota fuel cell forklift and other fuel cell vehicles and activities
4.4. Fuel cell forklifts from across the world
4.5. Refuelling a Plug Power unit
4.6. APFCT fuel cell forklift system showing two refueller cabinets
4.7. Top 20 industrial lift truck suppliers in 2013
4.8. World industrial truck statistics/orders and shipments
5.1. Electric bus in Nepal
5.2. Mobile electric scissor lift by Wuhan Chancay Machinery and Electronics
5.3. Garbage collecting electric car
6.1. 78 examples of hybrid electric bus producers by continent of headquarters.
6.2. Pure electric bus manufacturers by continent
6.3. MAN Lion urban hybrid bus
6.4. MAN Lion urban hybrid bus in section showing supercapacitors (ultracapacitors) in place of traction battery
6.5. Progress in China by BYD buses
6.6. ABB TOSA charging system
6.7. Passenger space is not compromised, with onboard equipment packaged on the electric bus' roof
6.8. Rapid battery charging takes place at every third or fourth bus stop along the pilot project's route, which runs between Geneva airport and the city's exhibition center.
6.9. ABB presentation late 2014 showing supercapacitor use in TOSA bus
6.10. Planned TEVA hybrid truck and JAC production line.
6.11. EDI CNG hybrid truck
6.12. The electric truck by the BMW Group and the SCHERM group
7.1. Taxi fire caused by a bad lithium-ion battery in a Chinese electric taxi
7.2. BYD taxi rollouts in late 2014
7.3. BYD Qin hybrid car
7.4. The Terra Motors e-trike
8.1. Grizzly robot electric vehicle for agriculture and mining
8.2. Sanyo commercial vehicle with extending solar panels for charging when stationary and mine with electric trucks using local solar and wind
8.3. Energy and work synchronization
8.4. Pure electric light mining vehicles
8.5. Bailey hybrid electric crane
8.6. Konecranes hybrid electric stacker
8.7. Pure electric manlift
9.1. Hybrid bus powertrain
9.2. Hybrid car powertrain using CNG
9.3. Some hybrid variants
9.4. Evolution of plug in vs mild hybrids
9.5. Trend to deep hybridisation
9.6. Evolution of hybrid structure
9.7. Price premium for hybrid buses
9.8. Three generations of lithium-ion battery with technical features that are sometimes problematical
9.9. Battery price assisting price of hybrid and pure electric vehicles as a function of power stored
9.10. Probable future improvement in parameters of lithium-ion batteries for pure electric and hybrid EVs
9.11. Comparison of battery technologies
9.12. Where supercapacitors fit in
9.13. Energy density vs power density for storage devices
9.14. Indicative trend of charging and electrical storage for large hybrid vehicles over the next decade.
9.15. Evolution of construction of range extenders over the coming decade
9.16. Examples of range extender technology in the shaft vs no shaft categories
9.17. Illustrations of range extender technologies over the coming decade with "gen" in red for those that have inherent ability to generate electricity
9.18. The principle of the Proton Exchange Membrane fuel cells
9.19. Trend of size of the largest (in red) and smallest (in green) fuel cell sets used in 98 bus trials worldwide over the last twenty years.
9.20. Evolution of traction batteries and range extenders for large hybrid electric vehicles as they achieve longer all-electric range over the next decade.
9.21. Main modes of rotational energy harvesting in vehicles
9.22. Main forms of photovoltaic energy harvesting on vehicles
9.23. Maximum power from the most powerful forms of energy harvesting on or in vehicles
9.24. Hybrid bus with range improved by a few percent using solar panels
9.25. Possible trend in battery power storage and voltage of power distribution
9.26. Volkswagen view of the attractions of 38V
9.27. Mitsubishi view of hybrid vehicle powertrain evolution
9.28. Flat lithium-ion batteries for a car and, bottom, UAVs
9.29. Supercapacitors that facilitate fast charging and discharging of the traction batteries are spread out on a bus roof
9.30. Here comes lithium
9.31. Approximate percentage of manufacturers offering traction batteries with less cobalt vs those offering ones with no cobalt vs those offering both. We also show the number of suppliers that offer lithium iron phosphate versions.
9.32. The Lohner-Porsche electric vehicle of 1898 showing its two in-wheel electric motors. Another version had four
9.33. Mitsubishi in-wheel motor
报告链接：http://www.bimarket.cn/Report/ReportInfo.aspx?Id=24633