A measure of United States retail sales probably fell for the first time in six months in August as Americans paid less for gasoline and pared purchases at shopping centers, economists said ahead of a government report this week.
Sales excluding cars and trucks dropped 0.2 percent, the first decline since February, according to the median projection in a Bloomberg News survey, after a 0.4-percent gain in July. A rebound in auto sales following a July slump probably brought overall purchases up 0.3 percent, economists estimated.
Job losses and the fading effect of the federal government's tax rebate checks are pinching consumers even as gasoline and other energy prices ease. A separate report this week may show that producer prices dropped in August for the first time this year.
"We've seen a real slowdown in income growth," said Chris Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York. "If retail inflation falls back below income growth then all of a sudden we could afford to buy some more stuff but it has to fall a pretty long way to cross back over again. I don't think the decline in inflation we've seen is enough to make up for the government not mailing out checks anymore."
The Commerce Department is scheduled to release the retail sales report on Friday in Washington. Estimates of overall sales ranged from a drop of 0.5 percent to a gain of 1.3 percent. Excluding autos, estimates ranged from a fall of 0.6 percent to a gain of 0.6 percent.
The annual selling rate for autos in the US increased to 13.7 million in August from a 16-year low of 12.6 million a month earlier, according to Autodata Corp. It was the first time in six months that the pace accelerated.
The gain partially reflected incentives auto makers offered to clear inventories, said Joshua Shapiro, chief US economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc in New York. "Boosted by extremely aggressive incentive programs, total light vehicle sales rebounded in August after July's debacle."
"Maybe toward the end of 2009, going into 2010, there will start to be some signs of recovery," for car and truck sales, Chrysler LLC President Jim Press said last Tuesday.
Chrysler sales fell 34 percent in August and were down 24 percent for the year to date. Sales at General Motors Corp, Ford Motor Co and Toyota Motor Corp also declined during the month, the companies said last Wednesday.
Consumers' inability to get access to credit is a bigger threat to sales than gasoline prices, Press said.
The Labor Department will release the producer-price report on Friday in Washington. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News forecast wholesale prices fell 0.5 percent. Excluding energy costs, they added 0.2 percent, according to the median estimate.
The government is scheduled to release the consumer price index for August next week.
A decline in gasoline prices in August may have pushed down filling station receipts in the retail sales report.
The average pump price of a gallon of regular gasoline fell to US$3.763 in August, from US$4.056 a month earlier, according to American Automobile Association.