CHINA'S soybean output may fall to the lowest in 15 years because of reduced planting and drought in the main growing region, spurring record overseas purchases by the world's biggest importer of the oilseed.
This year's harvest may fall by 17 percent to 12.9 million metric tons, while imports in the marketing year beginning in October could jump 10 percent to 31.4 million tons, independent commodity research firm Shanghai JC Intelligence Co, Ltd said yesterday.
China's soybean imports, mostly from the United States and Brazil, have almost doubled since 2003-04. The world's fastest-growing major economy needs more of the commodity to crush into livestock feed, as rising incomes boost meat consumption. Higher imports may extend gains in Chicago prices of 48 percent in the past year, according to Bloomberg News.
"It's too late to recover from any of the damage," Liu Zhaofu, manager at Longma Consulting, said from Harbin, the capital of the drought-stricken Heilongjiang province. "The domestic shortfall will have to be met with imports."
Heilongjiang Province, the heart of China's soybean belt and three times the size of Iowa, got 10 to 90 percent below average rain in July, according to the local weather office. The conditions would be the worst in 100 years, were it not for 1982, the Ministry of Agriculture said earlier.
China is the world's fourth-biggest soybean producer. The output forecast by Shanghai JC was 1.46 million tons less than it predicted a month ago, and 13 percent below a projection of 14.8 million tons made on August 8 by the state-affiliated China National Grain and Oils Information Center.