METALS-Copper Steady, Caught Between China and World Economies - ResearchInChina

Date:2011-08-15xieshasha  Text Size:

LONDON, Aug 12 (Reuters) - Copper steadied on Friday as prospects for stronger demand from top consumer China helped sustain prices, while a gloomy outlook for global economic growth and demand prevented gains.

Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange traded at $8,880 a tonne in official rings from $8,881 at the close on Thursday. Earlier this week the metal used in power and construction hit $8,446.25 a tonne, its lowest since early December last year, as the debt crisis in the euro zone escalated.

The resulting turbulence in financial markets has led to worries about the ripple effect into the real economy and reinforced fears of weaker demand growth for industrial metals.

"Any optimism is premature. We are not out of the woods yet, the economic path from now on is unclear," said Eugen Weinberg, commodities analyst at Commerzbank. "We've seen some bargain hunting, probably from the Chinese."

China accounts for nearly 40 percent of global copper demand estimated at around 19 million tonnes this year. Its absence from the international market has for months weighed on prices.

One school of thought holds that the country's consumers will soon be back buying after having used up their stocks and they will be helped by a stronger yuan against the dollar. A weaker U.S. currency makes metals priced in dollars cheaper for holders of other currencies.

"A stronger (yuan) gives China more purchasing power," an LME trader said, adding that he expected trading to be subdued today after the rollercoaster ride of recent days.
   
Significant Source
Others cite slowing manufacturing activity in China, due to tighter monetary policy to rein in inflation, as a reason consumers are likely to stay away.

Lower-than-expected lending numbers from Chinese banks give credence to the idea that the pace of Chinese growth is slowing. 

Also a concern for copper bulls are the trade flows between the Western world and Asia. A deterioration of economic health in the United States and Europe is likely to be felt in their imports of goods from China.

"Asia is a significant source of demand for metals, more sluggish growth in developed economies is likely to impact metals markets via large trade linkages with the U.S. and Europe," National Australia Bank said in a note.  "Nevertheless, current economic indicators for Asia point to continued demand growth, although activity has slowed."

Aluminium traded at $2,412 a tonne in the rings from $2,413 at the close on Thursday, zinc was untraded, but bid at $2,187 from $2,186, lead was bid at an unchanged $2,385 and nickel was bid at $21,725 from $21,600.

Tin rose on worries about restricted supplies from Indonesia, the world's largest exporter. It was bid at $24,495 a tonne from $23,605 on Thursday. In electronic trading it hit a one-week high of $24,825 a tonne.

Indonesia said it would impose a new royalty charge on all tin shipments and only allow the export of refined tin. 
 
Metal Prices at 1048 GMT
Comex copper in cents/lb, LME prices in $/T and SHFE prices in yuan/T
  Metal            Last      Change  Pct Move   End 2010   Ytd Pct   move
  COMEX Cu       400.65       -0.20     -0.05     444.70     -9.91
  LME Alum      2427.00       14.00     +0.58    2470.00     -1.74
  LME Cu        8881.00        0.00     +0.00    9600.00     -7.49
  LME Lead      2382.00       -3.00     -0.13    2550.00     -6.59
  LME Nickel   21550.00      -50.00     -0.23   24750.00    -12.93
  LME Tin      23605.00        0.00     +0.00   26900.00    -12.25
  LME Zinc      2186.00        0.00     +0.00    2454.00    -10.92
  SHFE Alu     17440.00     -195.00     -1.11   16840.00      3.56
  SHFE Cu*     66460.00     -250.00     -0.37   71850.00     -7.50
  SHFE Zin     16845.00       65.00     +0.39   19475.00    -13.50
** Benchmark month for COMEX copper
* 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN
SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07

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