At the Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC), held in Fukuoka, Japan, Paul Pang, managing director of CMAI China, told the delegates that ethylene capacity in China will increase by 16 million tons per year by 2016, and demand for petrochemicals will remain strong over the next few years.

According to their analysis, apart from conventional technologies, a majority of the increased ethylene capacity will also come from the coal-to-olefins (CTO) process. In particular, 5.6 million will be based on CTO.

Development in coal chemical projects will change the landscape of chemical industry. Ten CTO projects are either under construction or planning . They include the Shenhua-Dow joint 1-million-ton/year ethylene plant. Some 30 other coal-based projects are in the initial planning phases.

Also, six integrated petrochemical complexes, based on conventional technology, will add 4.6 million tons/year of ethylene capacity by 2015. These are mainly planned or under construction by PetroChina and Sinopec. Other planned projects in China will add 5.75 million by 2016. These include a 1.5 million ton/year methanol-to-olefins facility in Ningxia planned by Shenhua, CNOOC-Shell joint 1 million ethylene complex at Guangdong, two ethylene plants, each with 1 million in capacity, planned by PetroChina in Yangzhou and East China, the 1 million ethylene joint venture at Hainan, and two ethylene plants, each with 1 million in capacity, in Qingdao and Dalian.

Gary Adams, president of CMAI (Houston) forecast that the next petrochemical peak will arrive in 2016 and 67% of new demand will come from China and other regions in Asia.

Source: China Chemical Information Net