The deployment of Whole System Shift, a government effort to speed up the conversion of urban households from analog to digital cable TV, is driving China's digital cable set-top box (STB) market. As a result, unit shipments of digital cable STBs are projected to quadruple, from three million in 2005 to 12 million in 2010, the high-tech market research firm says.

Most of the digital STB shipment increases will come from basic set-top boxes. Most cable operators that are now installing Whole System Shift provide only basic services, and networks have not yet begun to install two-way networks. Operators' ability to provide interactive services is limited in the short-term, therefore, operators prefer basic boxes.

Following several trials of Whole System Shift, the digital-cable TV subscriber base in China jumped dramatically from 800,000 to 2.7 million by the end of 2005. It is predicted that there will be steady growth in advanced-box shipments, reaching 1.5 million by 2010 and that total revenues of cable STBs in China is projected to reach US$586 million by that time.

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