Abstract
Final-year sales data for 2013 were unavailable as this report was being compiled. Consequently, BMI retains its current forecasts this quarter, although we have now extended our forecast period out to 2018. Overall, BMI retains an optimistic outlook on new vehicle sales in the UAE, forecasting further growth of over 25% over the 2014-2018 period.
Underpinning our upbeat stance is BMI's positive view on the medium-term outlook for the UAE economy. At the end of November 2013, we revised up our forecasts for Dubai's economy on the back of the emirate winning the nomination to host the World Expo 2020. We continue to expect Dubai to become the key driver of the UAE's economic growth, as the emirate's non-oil sector expands substantially, especially given the economic boost of holding the Expo. In contrast, we expect Abu Dhabi will see GDP growth constrained by moderate increases in oil output and lower oil prices.
Table of Contents
BMI Industry View ..................................... 7
SWOT ............................................ 9
Political ................................................. 10
Economic ................................................. 11
Business Environment .......................................... 12
Industry Forecast ...................................... 13
Sales .................................................. 13
Table: UAE Automotive Sales, 2011-2018 ............................... 13
Production ................................................ 15
Trade ................................................. 16
Table: UAE Auto Trade 2011-2018 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Passenger Vehicles ............................................ 17
Table: UAE - Top 10 Manufacturers By Sales, H113 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Table: UAE - Top 10 Best Selling Models, 2012 ............................... 18
Luxury Cars .............................................. 21
Dealerships ............................................... 23
Fleet And Rental ............................................ 24
Commercial Vehicles ............................................ 25
Suppliers ................................................ 27
Alternative Fuels ............................................. 30
Macroeconomic Forecasts ................................. 32
Fiscal Position Remains Solid ...................................... 34
Industry Risk Reward Ratings .............................. 36
Middle East And North Africa Risk/Reward Ratings ............................. 36
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings - Middle East And North Africa Autos . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
Company Profile ...................................... 39
Company News Alert ............................................ 39
Arabian Automobiles (Nissan) ........................................ 42
Al-Futtaim (Toyota) ........................................... 45
Regional Overview .................................... 48
Middle East And North Africa Overview .................................. 48
Compete Or Complement In The GCC? .................................. 48
North Africa Becoming A Viable Alternative ................................ 49
Still Cautious On Iran ........................................... 51
Global Industry Overview .................................. 53
Table: Passenger Car Sales November 2013 (CBUs) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
Europe On Road To Recovery ...................................... 53
Tax Hike Skews Japan's Outlook; US Hits Sweet 16 .............................. 55
China Is BRIC Bright Spot ......................................... 57
Demographic Forecast ................................... 60
Table: United Arab Emirates' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
Table: United Arab Emirates' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
Table: United Arab Emirates' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 ............................... 63
Table: United Arab Emirates' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 .............................. 63
Methodology ........................................ 64
Industry Forecasts ............................................ 64
Sector-Specific Methodology ........................................ 65
Sources ................................................ 65
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology .................................... 66
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67