报告来源：http://www.bimarket.cn/Report/ReportInfo.aspx?Id=19381

Abstract

According to the Hong Kong Department of Transport (HKDT), vehicle sales for the first four months of 2014 came in at 15,040 units, an increase of 6.1% year-on-year (y-o-y). This figure consists of new private car registrations, new goods vehicle registrations and new private light bus registrations. In line with our view, the expansion of subsidies to replace older pre-Euro IV commercial vehicles (CVs), which are contributing to the city's pollution, continues to have limited impact, due to affordability issues (see 'Subsidy Indifference To Hit CV Sales', March 25).

The Hong Kong government aims to replace roughly 80,000 pre-Euro IV CVs (including franchised buses) by 2019, which will entail average CV sales of over 14,000 units annually from now until 2019. However, with current annual CV sales at half that level, the government will fall short of its initial target.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View ..................................... 7

SWOT ............................................. 8

Political ................................................ 10

Economic ................................................ 11

Business Environment .......................................... 12

Industry Forecast ...................................... 13

Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Hong Kong 2012-2018) . . . . . . . 13

Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Hong Kong 2012-2018) . . . . . . 13

Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Hong Kong 2012-2018) . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Hong Kong 2012-2018) . . . . . . . 14

Sales ................................................. 14

Passenger Vehicles ........................................... 19

Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Hong Kong 2012-2018) . . . . . . 19

Macroeconomic Forecasts ................................. 22

Economic Analysis ............................................ 22

External Trade Not What It Seems ..................................... 22

Property Correction Informs Below Consensus Forecast ........................... 24

Expenditure Breakdown .......................................... 24

Table: Hong Kong - Economic Activity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

Industry Risk Reward Ratings .............................. 26

Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings - Asia-Pacific Autos . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29

Company Profile ...................................... 30

Company Monitor ............................................. 30

Crown Motors .............................................. 34

Mercedes-Benz Hong Kong ......................................... 36

Sime Darby China ............................................ 37

Regional Overview .................................... 39

Asia Regional Overview .......................................... 39

Table: Vehicle Sales March 2014 (Cbus) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

Global Industry Overview .................................. 44

Table: Passenger Car Sales March 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44

European Growth Gathers Momentum ................................... 44

Japan Prepares For Tax Fallout ..................................... 46

China Wobble Adds To BRIC Weakness ................................... 47

Demographic Forecast ................................... 50

Table: Hong Kong's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51

Table: Hong Kong's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52

Table: Hong Kong's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

Table: Hong Kong's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

Methodology ........................................ 54

Industry Forecasts ........................................... 54

Sector-Specific Methodology ........................................ 55

Sources ................................................. 55

Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology .................................... 56

Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . 57

报告来源：http://www.bimarket.cn/Report/ReportInfo.aspx?Id=19381