报告来源：http://www.bimarket.cn/Report/ReportInfo.aspx?Id=17516

Abstract

In 2014, BMI forecasts 5.7% growth in total vehicle sales in the UK, coming from a 5.6% increase in the passenger car segment and 6.3% rise in commercial vehicle (CV) sales. BMI's bullish outlook for the passenger car market in 2014 comes on the back of improving consumer sentiment and pent-up demand in the market from a period of sustained declines. In 2013, passenger car sales increased 12.6% on the back of modest improvements in private consumption, price cuts from car sellers, and pent-up demand. The majority of cars sold in the UK market in 2013 were due to private sales, rather than fleet and business consumers. We expect trend to continue into 2014 as consumer confidence gains ground, although a modest resurgence in business confidence in the country will help boost sales from companies and fleet purchases. This provides upside risk to our bullish forecast.

BMI forecasts a 6.3% increase in UK CV sales in 2014, as a resurgence in manufacturing and construction activity fuel growth in sales. CV sales in 2013 increased 14.3%, reversing sustained period of decline. BMI has become increasingly bullish on the UK economy, and we believe that the slew of surprisingly strong economic data in recent months - particularly purchasing managers' index data - suggest that the economy, and manufacturing activity more specifically, is expanding.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View ..................................... 7

SWOT ............................................ 8

Political ................................................. 9

Economic ................................................. 11

Business Environment .......................................... 12

Industry Forecast ...................................... 13

Sales Forecast And Analysis ....................................... 13

Table: Sales Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Production Forecasts And Analysis ..................................... 14

Table: Production Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Trade ................................................. 15

Table: Balance Of Trade Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Passenger Vehicles ............................................ 16

Passenger Cars Forecasts And Analysis ................................... 16

Table: Sales And Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

Sales .................................................. 16

Production ................................................ 17

Alternative Fuels ............................................ 17

Company News .............................................. 18

Commercial Vehicles ............................................ 20

Table: Commercial Vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

Sales .................................................. 21

Production ................................................ 21

Motorcycles ................................................ 22

Table: Motorcycles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

Suppliers ................................................ 22

Macroeconomic Forecast ................................ 24

Table: United Kingdom - Economic Activity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

Industry Risk/Reward Ratings ............................... 28

Table: Europe Risk Rewards Rating . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31

Company Profile ...................................... 33

Global Company Strategy ......................................... 33

Regional Overview .................................... 36

Global Industry Overview .................................. 38

Table: Passenger Car Sales November 2013 (CBUs) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38

Europe On Road To Recovery ...................................... 38

Tax Hike Skews Japan's Outlook; US Hits Sweet 16 .............................. 40

China Is BRIC Bright Spot ......................................... 42

Demographic Forecast ................................... 45

Table: The United Kingdom's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46

Table: The United Kingdom's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47

Table: The United Kingdom's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 .............................. 48

Table: The United Kingdom's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 .............................. 48

Methodology ........................................ 49

Industry Forecasts ............................................ 49

Sector-Specific Methodology ........................................ 50

Sources ................................................ 50

Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology .................................... 51

Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52

报告来源：http://www.bimarket.cn/Report/ReportInfo.aspx?Id=17516