Abstract
BMI forecasts car sales in Angola to increase 21% in 2014, predicated on our bullish outlook for private consumption in the country.
We expect inflation to moderate somewhat over the year, and access to credit for many Angolans to improve, which should serve to boost car sales over the year. We expect the exchange rate to remain relatively steady over the course of the year, which should help to stabilise the cost of imported vehicles into the country and further boost sales. As with many emerging markets, the used-car segment is far more substantial than the new car market. We expect this to remain the case for some time in Angola, as new cars remain unaffordable for most people.
In spite of the small size of the market, a large number of foreign brands are already doing business, with competition rife in the passenger car segment. Japan's Toyota Motor reportedly dominates the passenger car segment. The lower end of the market is dominated by Chinese firms such as Dongfeng-Nissan, a joint venture between China's Dongfeng Motors and Japan's Nissan Motor, which has been operating in Angola since 2006. In addition to these brands, German companies such as Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes- Benz have maintained a strong presence in the Angolan autos market.
Table of Contents
BMI Industry View ..................................... 7
SWOT ............................................ 8
Political ................................................. 9
Economic ................................................. 10
Business Environment .......................................... 11
Industry Forecast ...................................... 12
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Angola 2012-2018) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Macroeconomic Forecasts ................................. 15
Economic Analysis ............................................. 15
Table: Angola - Economic Activity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Industry Risk Reward Ratings .............................. 20
Table: Autos Risk/Reward Ratings - Sub-Saharan Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Competitive Landscape .................................. 24
Company Profile ...................................... 26
Company Monitor ............................................ 26
Nissan Angola ............................................... 29
Volkswagen Angola ............................................ 31
Regional Overview .................................... 32
Global Industry Overview .................................. 40
Table: Passenger Car Sales March 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
European Growth Gathers Momentum ................................... 40
Japan Prepares For Tax Fallout ..................................... 42
China Wobble Adds To BRIC Weakness ................................... 43
Demographic Forecast ................................... 46
Table: Angola's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
Table: Angola's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
Table: Angola's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
Table: Angola's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
Methodology ........................................ 50
Industry Forecasts ............................................ 50
Sector-Specific Methodology ........................................ 51
Sources ................................................ 51
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology .................................... 52
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53