Abstract
After an estimated 2.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) decline in new vehicle sales in 2013, we forecast robust average growth of 15.9% y-o-y between 2014 and 2018 in Zimbabwe. Although it appears that private consumption in Zimbabwe slowed in 2013, we believe that this component of GDP will accelerate in 2014. Although private consumption will remain relatively robust and will be the main driver of headline real GDP growth in 2014 and in the years thereafter, the vehicles market will continue to rely on businesses for much of its growth. Such is the price differential between new cars and imported used cars that private consumers are likely to continue to opt for imported used cars.
Our view for the commercial vehicles segment played out in July 2013, when Babcock, the importer and distributor of DAF trucks in Southern Africa, delivered seven DAF trucks to Mutare Bottling, the Manicaland Coca-Cola and Schweppes franchise holder in Mutare, Zimbabwe. For DAF, this is the single biggest order coming from Babcock in Zimbabwe.
Table of Contents
BMI Industry View ..................................... 7
SWOT ............................................ 8
Political ................................................. 8
Economic ................................................. 9
Business Environment .......................................... 11
Industry Forecast ...................................... 12
Sales .................................................. 12
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Zimbabwe 2012-2018) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Macroeconomic Forecast ................................ 15
Table: Zimbabwe - Economic Activity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Industry Risk Reward Ratings .............................. 19
Table: Autos Risk/Reward Ratings - Sub-Saharan Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
Competitive Landscape .................................. 23
Flex-Fuel Vehicles ........................................... 23
Used Cars ............................................... 24
Suppliers ................................................ 26
Company Profile ...................................... 28
Company Monitor ............................................ 28
Regional Overview .................................... 31
Global Industry Overview .................................. 39
Table: Passenger Car Sales March 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
European Growth Gathers Momentum ................................... 39
Japan Prepares For Tax Fallout ..................................... 41
China Wobble Adds To BRIC Weakness ................................... 42
Demographic Forecast ................................... 45
Table: Zimbabwe's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
Table: Zimbabwe's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) .............................. 47
Table: Zimbabwe's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
Table: Zimbabwe's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
Methodology ........................................ 49
Industry Forecasts ............................................ 49
Sector-Specific Methodology ........................................ 50
Sources ................................................ 50
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology .................................... 51
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52