报告来源：http://www.bimarket.cn/Report/ReportInfo.aspx?Id=18516

Abstract

According to the China Association Of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), vehicle sales grew 6.6% yearon- year (y-o-y) in March 2014, to 2.17mn units. The rather disappointing print chimes with the 7.9% y-o-y increase in passenger car sales in the same month, to 1.71mn units. This brings total auto sales for the first three months of the year to 5.92mn units, an increase of 9.2% y-o-y.

The significant fall in the March passenger car sales growth rate compared with February is certainly worrying and does suggest slowing momentum. While we highlighted the lacklustre performance of vehicle sales in January due to flagging demand for commercial vehicles (CVs), the weakness in passenger car demand highlights the broader challenge of boosting sales, which is facing the auto sector. This is very much in line with our sector slowdown view for 2014.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View ..................................... 7

SWOT ............................................ 9

Political ................................................. 11

Economic ................................................. 12

Business Environment .......................................... 13

Industry Forecast ...................................... 14

Production And Sales ........................................... 14

Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2018) . . . . . . . . . . 14

Alternative Fuel ............................................. 16

Passenger Cars ............................................. 27

Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2018) . . . . . . . . . 27

Commercial Vehicles ............................................ 38

Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2018) . . . . . . . . . . . . 38

Motorcycles ................................................ 39

Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2018) . . . . . . . . . . 39

Company Developments .......................................... 39

Suppliers ................................................ 41

Macroeconomic Forecasts ................................. 44

Economic Analysis ............................................. 44

Table: China - Economic Activity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48

Industry Risk Reward Ratings .............................. 49

Table: BMI INDUSTRY RISK/REWARD RATINGS - ASIA-PACIFIC AUTOS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52

Company Profile ...................................... 53

Company News Alert ............................................ 53

Shanghai GM .............................................. 57

Volkswagen ................................................ 59

Ford Motor ................................................ 61

Daimler ................................................. 63

Regional Overview .................................... 65

Asia Regional Overview .......................................... 65

Table: VEHICLE SALES MARCH 2014 (CBUS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65

Global Industry Overview .................................. 70

Table: Passenger Car Sales March 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70

European Growth Gathers Momentum ................................... 70

Japan Prepares For Tax Fallout ..................................... 72

China Wobble Adds To BRIC Weakness ................................... 73

Demographic Forecast ................................... 76

Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77

Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) .............................. 78

Table: China's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79

Table: China's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79

Methodology ........................................ 80

Industry Forecasts ............................................ 80

Sector-Specific Methodology ........................................ 81

Sources ................................................ 81

Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology .................................... 82

Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . 83

报告来源：http://www.bimarket.cn/Report/ReportInfo.aspx?Id=18516