报告来源：http://www.bimarket.cn/Report/ReportInfo.aspx?Id=18669
Abstract
According to the Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA), auto sales tumbled 29.3% yearon- year (y-o-y) in March 2014 to 9,614 units. The sharp fall in March sales, however, can be attributed to the 'New Year Model' phenomenon whereby consumer demand eases after the start of the year. This has not derailed the mild recovery in the sector, which we highlighted back in August 2013 (see 'Sales To Recover But Production Faces Challenges', August 29 2013).
Vehicle sales for 9MFY2013/14 (July-June) rose 2.2% y-o-y, to 100,220 units. We believe vehicle sales will continue to grow at a modest pace for the rest of FY2013/14 and maintain our full fiscal year sales forecast of 142,500 units, an increase of 3.5%. Strength In Rupee To Lift Sales Another factor which contributed to the sharp drop in March sales was deferred purchases by consumers due to expectations of price cuts in the near future. The Pakistani rupee has appreciated significantly against the US dollar in recent months and we believe this will give carmakers room to discount their prices given that a lot of assembly components are imported. With assemblers usually taking roughly three months to pass on the impact of a stronger local currency, we see upcoming price discounts as another tailwind for sales for the remainder of FY2013/14.
Table of Contents
BMI Industry View ..................................... 7
SWOT ............................................ 9
Political ................................................. 10
Economic ................................................. 12
Business Environment .......................................... 13
Industry Forecast ...................................... 14
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Pakistan 2012-2018) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Sales .................................................. 14
Passenger Vehicles ............................................ 17
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Pakistan 2012-2018) . . . . . . . . . 17
Table: Passenger Car Historical Production And Sales By Model, FY07/08-FY12/13 (CBUs) .................... 18
Commercial Vehicles ............................................ 19
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Pakistan 2012-2018) . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Table: Commercial Vehicle Historical Sales By Manufacturer, 2008/09-2012/13 (CBUs) . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Motorcycles ................................................ 24
Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Pakistan 2012-2018) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
Table: Motorcycle Historical Production And Sales By Manufacturer, 2007-2012 (CBUs) . . . . . . . . . . 24
Suppliers ................................................ 27
Macroeconomic Forecast ................................ 31
Economic Analysis ............................................. 31
Table: PAKISTAN - ECONOMIC ACTIVITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
Industry Risk Reward Ratings .............................. 35
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings - Asia-Pacific Autos . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
Company Profile ...................................... 39
Company News Alert ............................................ 39
Indus Motor ................................................ 43
Honda Atlas ............................................... 45
Pak Suzuki Motor ............................................ 46
Regional Overview .................................... 47
Asia Regional Overview .......................................... 47
Table: Vehicle Sales March 2014 (Cbus) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
Global Industry Overview .................................. 52
Table: Passenger Car Sales March 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
European Growth Gathers Momentum ................................... 52
Japan Prepares For Tax Fallout ..................................... 54
China Wobble Adds To BRIC Weakness ................................... 55
Demographic Forecast ................................... 58
Table: Pakistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
Table: Pakistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
Table: Pakistan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
Table: Pakistan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 ............................... 61
Methodology ........................................ 62
Industry Forecasts ............................................ 62
Sector-Specific Methodology ........................................ 63
Sources ................................................ 63
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology .................................... 64
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
报告来源：http://www.bimarket.cn/Report/ReportInfo.aspx?Id=18669