Abstract
US light vehicle sales ended 2013 up 7.6% at 15.60mn, in line with BMI's forecast of an 8.2% increase to 15.68mn. With macroeconomic conditions largely favourable, we expect further growth, albeit slightly slower at 3.6%, to be achievable in 2014, taking the market back to 16mn units for the first time since 2007.
We expect light trucks to continue to outperform the car segment, led by a slew of new product launches. Looking ahead, positive data from the residential housing sector, as part of an increasingly bullish macroeconomic picture, suggests that the truck segment will carry this growth into 2014 (see 'Weekly Data Analysis: Positive Housing, Manufacturing And Consumer Data', December 2). We forecast 5.3% growth in light truck sales in 2014, which is still robust by historical standards, despite representing a slowdown from current levels.
Table of Contents
BMI Industry View ..................................... 7
SWOT ............................................ 8
Political ................................................. 9
Economic ................................................. 10
Business Environment .......................................... 11
Industry Forecast ...................................... 12
Table: US Automotives Historical Data And Forecasts .............................. 12
Production Investment .......................................... 13
Table: North American Investments, Nov 2013 - Feb 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Passenger Vehicles ............................................ 15
Table: US Automotives Historical Data And Forecasts .............................. 15
Longer-Term Risk ............................................ 18
Competitive Landscape ......................................... 20
Table: US Top 10 New Light Vehicle Sales (CBUs) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Production ................................................ 21
Financing ............................................... 24
Dealers ................................................ 28
Commercial Vehicles ............................................ 30
Table: US Automotives Historical Data And Forecasts .............................. 30
Segment Trends ............................................. 33
Macroeconomic Forecast ................................ 36
Economic Analysis ............................................. 36
Table: United States - Economic Activity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
Industry Risk Reward Ratings .............................. 45
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings ........................................ 45
Table: BMI's Americas Risk/ Reward Ratings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
Company Profile ...................................... 48
General Motors (GM) ........................................... 48
Chrysler ................................................. 49
Ford Motor ................................................ 50
Johnson Controls ............................................. 52
Regional Overview .................................... 53
Global Industry Overview .................................. 61
Table: Passenger Car Sales November 2013 (CBUs) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
Europe On Road To Recovery ...................................... 61
Tax Hike Skews Japan's Outlook; US Hits Sweet 16 .............................. 63
China Is BRIC Bright Spot ......................................... 65
Demographic Forecast ................................... 68
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) ............................... 69
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) ............................... 70
Table: The United States' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
Table: The United States' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
Methodology ........................................ 72
Industry Forecasts ............................................ 72
Sector-Specific Methodology ........................................ 73
Sources ................................................ 73
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology .................................... 74
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75