Abstract
Final-year sales data for 2013 were unavailable as this report was being compiled. Consequently, BMI retains its current forecasts this quarter, although we have now extended our forecast period to 2018.
Overall, BMI remains upbeat on the medium-term outlook for the Kuwaiti new vehicle sales market, with the country offering strong growth potential in both the volume and high-end segments. For 2014, BMI retains its GDP growth forecast of 2.9% this quarter. We expect the Kuwaiti economy to perform relatively well over the year, with non-oil growth expected to accelerate on the back of strong domestic demand and a modest pick-up in government capital spending. While we remain fundamentally cautious about the country's medium-term investment outlook, we note that higher growth in bank lending over the last few months of 2013 and signs of progress on some of Kuwait's development projects have improved the growth prospects for gross fixed capital formation.
Table of Contents
BMI Industry View ..................................... 7
SWOT ............................................ 9
Political SWOT ............................................. 11
Economic SWOT ............................................. 12
Business Environment SWOT ....................................... 13
Industry Forecast ...................................... 15
Sales .................................................. 15
Table: Kuwait Auto Sales 2011-2018 ............................... 15
Table: Kuwait Automotive Fleet, 2011-2018 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Trade ................................................. 19
Table: Kuwait Auto Trade, 2011-2018 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Passenger Vehicles ............................................ 19
Table: Kuwait - Top 10 Manufacturers By Sales, H113 .............................. 20
Table: Kuwait - Top 10 Best-Selling Models, 2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Luxury Cars .............................................. 21
Commercial Vehicles ............................................ 24
Suppliers ................................................ 26
Macroeconomic Forecasts ................................. 27
Economic Analysis ............................................. 27
Table: Kuwait - Economic Activity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
Industry Risk Reward Ratings .............................. 35
Middle East And North Africa Risk/Reward Ratings ............................. 35
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings - Middle East And North Africa Autos . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Company Profile ...................................... 38
Company News Alert ............................................ 38
Arabian Motors Group (Ford) ........................................ 41
KAICO .................................................. 43
Al-Sayer (Toyota) ............................................ 45
Regional Overview .................................... 48
Middle East And North Africa Overview .................................. 48
Compete Or Complement In The GCC? .................................. 48
North Africa Becoming A Viable Alternative ................................ 49
Still Cautious On Iran ........................................... 51
Global Industry Overview .................................. 53
Table: Passenger Car Sales November 2013 (CBUs) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
Europe On Road To Recovery ...................................... 53
Tax Hike Skews Japan's Outlook; US Hits Sweet 16 .............................. 55
China Is BRIC Bright Spot ......................................... 57
Demographic Forecast ................................... 60
Demographic Outlook .......................................... 60
Table: Kuwait's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
Table: Kuwait's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
Table: Kuwait's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
Table: Kuwait's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
Methodology ........................................ 64
Industry Forecasts ............................................ 64
Sector-Specific Methodology ........................................ 65
Sources ................................................ 65
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology .................................... 66
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67