China's top ILEC has more subscribers than the entire U.S., and almost all use DSL. China also leads the world in DSL manufacturing, and is moving up market into engineering.
China will soon pass the U.S. as the country with the most broadband users, probably mid-2007 at 55 million to 60 million. Almost all is DSL. China Telecom's 23.5 million subscribers are more than the entire U.S.; China Netcom 13.5 million makes them the world's second largest DSL carrier. China also has 365 million land lines and 426 million wireless subscribers. China's economy is on the fastest rise in history, growing twice as fast as West Germany's "economic miracle" or any period in U.S. history.
These extraordinary results were achieved by well regulated monopolies, an alternate strategy to the (often weak) competition in the West. Chinese telecoms are government controlled beyond the dreams of any free market regulator. CEOs follow government orders or are sacked, with the CEOs leaving CT and CN last year. Competition can serve consumers well, but so can effective regulation. Empirically, the world leaders were built with strong regulation in France, Korea, Japan—and China.
Wireless is taking over, however, and CT and CN both reported profits dropped. Landline counts are virtually flat and total minutes of talking is down. VSNL in India is similarly struggling. Around the world, landline phones are in inexorable decline, with DSL and IP TV only a partial salvation.
German broadband penetration at 30 percent is a third lower than France or the UK because DT, from 2001 through 2005, had the highest prices.
Three years ago, the U.S. had 20 million broadband users, more than twice as many as China. In the last six months, China has added 7.5 million to 45 million and the U.S. 5.1 million to 50 million. Four more quarters at those rates will take China past the U.S. in total broadband subs.
Many Chinese apartment buildings include a broadband LAN as part of the service and are not included in the official numbers, further narrowing today's gap.
DSL dominates in China. China Telecom has 25.3 million DSL lines, China Netcom 13.5 million, and China Tietong over 2 million. That's nearly twice the U.S. total.
The majority of DSL manufacturing has moved to China in the last five years. The largest DSLAM maker, Alcatel, has moved manufacturing from North Carolina to Alcatel Shanghai Bell, and Huawei is a growing number two. Most modems are also manufactured in China, even if the name on the box is Siemens or Alcatel. An increasing proportion of DSL engineering now comes from China as well. Key Alcatel work on AT&T Lightspeed is performed in inland China.
The China-U.S. gap will only widen. Only 12 percent of Chinese homes have broadband, while 45 percent do in the U.S. China Netcom expects DSL growth to accelerate as they move quickly to triple play now that the government is giving permission.
Source:佚名