DRAM contract prices for the first half of October have seen 2% drops to flat growth, becoming more stable. But prices have fallen by almost 50% cumulatively so far in 2011, dragging down the cost of memory in a PC to only 3.8%, according to industry sources.

New figures from DRAMeXchange indicate that early October contract prices for 2GB DDR3 modules slid about 2% to average US$10.50, while 4GB parts stayed unchanged at US$19-20.

PC OEMs have started replenishing their inventories from September, but still expressed caution about their shipments in the fourth quarter given uncertainty in the world economy, the sources indicated.

Meanwhile, China's National Day holiday failed to boost sales as PC OEMs had hoped, the sources observed. The market for DRAM remains in a state of oversupply despite supply-side production cuts previously, the sources said, adding that the price situation is still not optimistic in the fourth quarter of 2011.

But several factors, such as ultrabook devices and Microsoft's Windows 8, are giving the DRAM market for 2012 a glimmer of hope, the sources pointed out.

The mainstream specification for ultrabooks is 4GB at present, and the popularity of ultrabooks will accelerate growth in memory content per PC, the sources said. As for Microsoft's Windows 8, the new OS is expected to trigger a round of PC replacement, the sources indicated.

In addition, with DRAM suppliers aggressively pushing 4GB modules into the mainstream, combined shipments of their 4GB parts are likely to exceed those of 2GB ones in the fourth quarter of 2011, the sources said.

Major producers including Samsung Electronics and Hynix Semiconductor have ramped up output of their 4Gb chips made using 30nm-class process technology. Instead of building two 2GB modules, they choose a single 4GB module allowing production costs to be reduced by about 10%, the sources pointed out.